As reactions and litany of litigations continue to trail the 2023 general election in Nigeria, IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI examines the retrogressive state of voter turnout for elections in the country, analysing how multiple cases of violence, voter intimidation and weak policing cast a pall over the credibility of the last poll.
The 2023 general election in Nigeria may have ended, but the incidence of voter suppression, intimidation, calculated disenfranchisement, killings, ballot-box snatching, and thuggery that occurred during the poll has cast a pall over its credibility.
To many political observers, the election failed its integrity test, despite being the most expensive in Nigeria’s history and steeled with both the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the 2022 Electoral Act.
Prior to the election, there had been repeated promises made by the trio of President MuhammaduBuhari; Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), chairman, Professor MahmoodYakubu, and the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba, to ensure credible and violence-free elections. Even President Buhari was more direct in his promise of a free and transparent election as his lasting legacy to the country.
The heavy security preparation for the poll
As a way to match the promises with actionable moves, the IGP, a few days before the commencement of the election, had said that the police would deploy 310,973 of its personnel to the over 176,846 polling units nationwide for the exercises.
He noted that to guard against any security breach during the election, the security formation would consist of conventional policemen and women, the mobile police, the special counter-terrorism unit, special forces, the intelligence response team, and other sections of the police.
Speaking at the 66th session of the State House Ministerial briefing organised by the Presidential Communications Team at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja in February, Baba said this number would be augmented with 51,000 personnel from the National Security and Civil Defense Corps, 21,000 from the Federal Road Safety Corps, 11,336 from the Nigeria Correctional Service, 9,447 from the National Drugs Law Enforcement Agency and 350 personnel from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.
“There exist 176,846 polling units in 8,809 wards of the 36 states of the Federation and FCT where the elections will be conducted. The Nigeria police, with the support of other security agencies, [have] perfected plans to deploy in a coordinated and collaborative manner to cover all these locations.
“In view of the above, the Nigeria police will deploy 310,973 personnel for the election security operations. This will comprise of conventional policemen, the mobile policemen, the special counter-terrorism unit, in Special Forces, the intelligence response team, and other sections of the police.”
“Aside from the military and the DSS, other security agencies will contribute 93,495 personnel for the election security operations.
“These include the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps which will deploy through the police 51,000 personnel, the Federal Road Safety Corps, 21,000, the Nigeria Correctional Service, 11,336, the national drug law enforcement agency, 9447, the Economic and Financial Crime Commission 350,” the IGP had explained.
He stressed that with a strength of 404,106 personnel, a minimum of two operatives drawn from these agencies would be jointly deployed to man each polling unit nationwide, while the armed personnel will secure the public space, INEC facilities, vulnerable locations, and border areas.
With regards to logistics, the police chief said the force would deploy 74 armoured personnel carriers, 37 water cannons, 200 gun trucks, 1,240 patrol vehicles, 52 patrol carriers, 50 ambulances, 60 busses, and 300 motorcycles. Others include 75 gun trucks in the riverine areas, nine unmanned aerial patrol vehicles (drones) for mission-specific areas surveillance and support, motorised crowd control equipment, helicopters, explosive ordnance disposal, canine support, and mounted troop assets. In addition, the IGP revealed that the police would use minimal force to address possible violence that may trail the announcement of results.
According to him, the force’s election plan extends beyond the announcement of results. Therefore, he said, adequate plans were on the ground to identify, isolate and arrest individuals and groups engaged in post-election violence.
“Our operation plan extends beyond the announcement of results. And that is why we are expecting that there might be violence.
“If there is any reaction after the announcement of election results, then the situation will be frontally confronted based on how it presents itself. The use of minimum pose to bring down the situation will be employed. And for that purpose, we are ever ready,” the IGP asserted.
Multiple incidents of political violence
But despite this, the Joint Election Observation Mission of the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), in their assessment of the overall performance of agencies associated with the election rated security as falling short of the reasonable expectations of the people.
The 40-member delegation of the two United States Institutes, led by Joyce Banda, a former President of Malawi, said logistical challenges and multiple incidents of political violence overshadowed the electoral process and prevented many voters from participating.
“The mission notes that despite the much-needed reforms to the Electoral Act 2022, the election fell well short of Nigerian citizens’ reasonable expectations. Logistical challenges and multiple incidents of political violence overshadowed the electoral process and impeded a substantial number of voters from participating,” the delegation had stated.
It will be recalled that before the elections, some politicians had engaged in campaigns of calumny, character assassination, ethnic profiling, and religious divisions, which have all heated up the polity and escalated the possibility of violence rending the country during the election.
It is believed that with the severity of the apparent security breaches that preceded the election in some states of the federation, the security operatives especially the police officers stationed at the various polling units during the election would be proactive enough to guard against any ferocious display of political thugs that will either harm the electoral officers or deter the electorate from participating in the much-acclaimed voting process. But it was the exact opposite of this that was observed in some states of the federation during the election as thugs brashly had a free day, riding on the political firepower of their godfathers to brutalise, maim and kill some voters on the day of election.
According to political watchers, the violence in the 2023 elections came in a different pattern. Apart from the usual disruption of the election, carting away of ballot boxes and election materials, political thugs reportedly moved from street to street during the build-up, warning people not to come out for election if they would not vote for a particular party and its candidates.
The thugs did not even stop at making such announcements in the open, they went as far as manning some polling units on election day with cutlasses, wooden planks, and cudgels, waiting to deal ruthlessly with those who would defy their warning to vote against their preferred party and candidates.
Sunday Tribune gathered that the traditional rulers were not also left out as some were seen moving from one polling station to another to ensure that voters who were not prepared to vote for their preferred party and candidates were intimidated, harassed, and even beaten into line. Some high-profile politicians across the country were also seen moving with thugs and police security details from one polling unit to the other destroying ballot boxes and even taking some away with them.
Tensed pre-election climate
It will be recalled that an election violence monitoring and mitigation group, the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) had, in its pre-election environment monitoring survey, reported that ahead of the governorship poll, there had been 482 cases of electoral violence in Nigeria, leading to over 160 deaths from January 1, 2022, to March 17, 2023. In Lagos and some other states, there were incidence of hate speech, ethnic slurs against non-indigenes, and intimidation of the opposition political parties or voters perceived to be supporting them. In many parts of the state dominated by the so-called non-indigenes, it was reported that political thugs assaulted voters, destroyed voting materials, and disrupted the exercise.
In his appraisal shortly after the presidential election, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), a civil society organisation (CSO), said the various cases of intimidation recorded before and during the poll were linked to ethnic identity and political party affiliation.
“Intimidation, in many cases linked to the identity or political party affiliation, was recorded across the country and was reported by 3.4 per cent of observers. It was most commonplace in the North-West, South-South, and South-East,” the statement reads.
“One instance of voter intimidation reported by an observer in Anambra State detailed how party agents stood aside the voting cubicle directing voters as to how they should cast their ballot in full view of INEC ad hoc staff.
“For the most part conducted by political parties’ thugs or loosely affiliated individuals, some of the intimidation was designed to suppress votes centred on ethnic identity.
“In Lagos, threats were made against Igbos by prominent political thugs like MC Oluomo. BVAS readers were also targeted in some parts of Imo and Anambra states. Without a reader, voting is unable to continue and although replacements were found, this tactic for voter suppression could become more widespread in the future,” the CSO warned.
While addressing newsmen after the state and House of Assembly election, CDD director, Idayat Hassan, and chairperson of its election analysis, Adele Jinadu, expressed concern over the voter suppression and intimidation, adding that it contributed to disruptions recorded during the elections.
Voter intimidation as major set-back
Speaking in a similar vein, the Chairman of the Transmission Monitoring Group (TMG), Auwal Ibrahim Musa, aka Rafsanjani, said the violence, voter intimidation, and suppression that marred the recently held poll were major setbacks to the country’s electoral process considering the increasing spate of voter education that had been held prior to the election.
Rafsanjani noted that in the build-up to the election, there were reports of voters’ suppression and intimidation with threats of consequences as issued by well-known loyalists of some highly ranked politicians in the country,” adding that: “The failure of the police to apprehend and prosecute the perpetrators of such threats further emboldened them to unleash mayhem on citizens on election day.”
According to Rafsanjani, “The major drawback of the state election remains the widespread violence that permeated through the states of the country. Cases of disruption of polling processes by political thugs were reported as they were seen to snatch ballot boxes and destroyed electoral materials across the country, and in extreme cases resulting in deaths.”
The TMG boss stressed that the political thugs perpetrated the voter suppression and intimidation mostly in the presence of security agents, adding that: “Journalists and observers were also victims of intimidation and attacks; for instance, a TMG observer was physically attacked in Kano.”
Speaking with Sunday Tribune, a senior lecturer in the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies, Federal University, Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Agbegbedia Anthony, said the various incidents of intimidation by political thugs before and during the 2023 elections were one of the major factors that crashed the voting turnout for the poll to an all-time low of 27.1per cent.
It is on record that the 2023 presidential election is the 10th and has the lowest voter turnout rate in the last four election cycles. More than 93 million Nigerians registered to vote, but only 25 million voted during the election, which implies that only 2.7 in every 10 registered voters determined the outcome of the election.
Steady decline of voter turnout
Unlike that of 2023, the 2019 elections had 84 million (84,004,084) registered voters and 82 million (82,344,107) PVCs collected. In 2015, it was 68 million (68,833,476) registered voters with 67 million (67,422,005) having collected their PVCs.
In 2011, there were 73 million (73,528,040) registered voters. In the election held that year, turnout for the presidential poll stood at 53.68 per cent, with 39 million votes cast. But since then, the turnout of voters has seen a steady decline. In 2015, it fell to 47.09 per cent, with 31 million votes recorded, then to 34.7 per cent in the 2019 elections where 29 million voters participated. This year’s election’s 27.1 per cent return in votes cast is the lowest so far.
According to the FUOYE don, voter apathy as recorded in the last election is tied to so many factors, listing the brazen manner political thugs operated to intimidate voters they believed wouldn’t vote for their party’s candidates as one of such factors.
“Yes, there was intimidation and suppression in some parts of the country, in places like Lagos State and in some other places where voter apathy was recorded. In Lagos, this attitude of hatred was displayed towards non-Lagosians, which played a great role in the governorship election. But I read that there was actually a large turnout of voters in some of these states, but the intimidation from some political thugs at the polling unit deterred people from exercising their franchise on that day.”
Roles played by police operatives
While commenting on the role played by police officers during the election, especially in places where voters suffered harassment Anthony said: “Some of the policemen or security agents deployed across the polling units on the election day were used by politicians to suppress and intimidate voters, which is not supposed to be.
“I heard the IGP said that security men were deployed in various polling units across the country for the exercise. Let me give you an instance, at the polling unit where I voted in Delta State, there was no single police officer or security agent. It was when I was coming back from the poling unit that I saw some of the policemen drinking under a tree. Was that what we asked them to go and do? They were actually eating groundnut and drinking under the tree on the day of the election, while the polling unit was left with no security presence. Not even a single officer. So in essence, it was obvious that some of the deployed policemen failed to carry out their duties on election day. Why then wouldn’t there be suppression and intimidation of voters by thugs at the polling units? So, I believe the unprofessional conduct displayed by some of the policemen deployed for the election contributed to the voter apathy and suppression that was recorded at the polls,” he explained.
According to the varsity lecturer, “One of the major roles of security operatives, in general, is to protect lives and properties. But they failed in this regard. So, I think the security agents, especially the police, need proper re-orientation and training. The fact is most of them are educated illiterates. So, they must not just go to acquire training, they need proper training. We have all seen that quite a number of them have left what they are commissioned to do and instead delved into unlawful activities, like the brazen collection of bribes on Nigerian roads. There have also been cases where they even killed innocent Nigerians that failed to give them the bribes, which were some of the ills that triggered the EndSARS protests.”
He stressed that many a time, Nigerians often complained of the porous security system in the country and the need to overhaul the Nigerian policing system, but the process must start with the state governors, who are the chief security officers of the states and the political gladiators like them who use the police officers and thugs to carry out illicit political deals before and during elections.
INEC’s war against electoral violence
Even the INEC chairman, Yakubu, whose commission’s efforts at conducting credible elections are usually eroded by violence, had at different forums advocated the need for the establishment of the electoral offences commission and tribunal that will be chiefly saddled with the responsibility of prosecuting electoral offences.
While addressing the global audience at Chatham House, London, in January on the commission’s readiness for the 2023 general elections, Yakubu said: “Although the commission is empowered by the Electoral Act to prosecute electoral offences, it lacks the power and resources to make arrests and thoroughly investigate electoral offences.”
He said: “While we will continue to cooperate with the law enforcement agencies for the arrest, investigation, and prosecution of electoral offenders, most of those that are arrested, tried, and convicted so far are the foot soldiers rather than the sponsors of electoral violence and other violations. Efforts at mitigating electoral malfeasance can only become effective with the arrest, prosecution, and sanctioning of the “mother spiders” to end their reign of impunity.
“It is for this reason that INEC supports the establishment of the Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal imbued with the responsibility of prosecuting electoral offences as recommended in the reports of various committees set up by the Federal Government, notably the Uwais Committee (2009), the Lemu Committee (2011) and the Nnamani Committee (2017). This will enable the Commission to focus on its core mandate of organising, supervising, and conducting elections and electoral activities.
“While appreciating the considerable work already done, the commission once again appeals to the National Assembly to expedite action on the conclusion of the legislative work on the Bill. It will be another enduring legacy of the 9th Assembly that will strengthen Nigeria’s democracy just like the passage of the Electoral Act 2022.”
Systemic bottlenecks
While further recounting some of the key challenges the commission has been facing in the process of prosecuting electoral offenders, the INEC chairman at another roundtable in Abuja in February, said: “Over the years, we have worked closely with the Nigeria Police. Since 2015 we have received a total of 149 case files, including 16 cases arising from the 2019 general election,” he said.
He noted that: “The cases are prosecuted in the states where the alleged offences were committed. Unlike pre-election and post-election cases, there is no timeframe for the prosecution of electoral offenders. A case may go on for several years. Some of the cases were dismissed for want of diligent prosecution while in some states, the attorneys-general entered nolleprosequi to get the alleged offenders off the hook.
“Even where the commission recorded the most successful prosecution of electoral offenders following the violence witnessed in a bye-election in Kano State in 2016, it is unclear how many of the 40 offenders sentenced to prison with the option of fine actually spent time in jail. The fine was paid presumably by their sponsors.
“That is why we believe that the Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal will dispense justice dispassionately and speedily in the same way that the Electoral Court deals with violators in other countries such as South Africa,” Yakubu had explained.
He expressed concern that elections are increasingly being characterised by brazen acts of impunity, suggesting that the best antidote to impunity is the “enforcement of sanctions under the laws without fear and favour.”
It will be recalled that the IGP recently disclosed that the police had arrested over 700 persons for violation of electoral laws during the 2023 general election. Giving more details regarding the arrest, Alkali Baba said 185 cases of electoral infractions were recorded during the presidential election while 203 arrests were made.
But only time will tell whether the arrested offenders would be made to face the wrath of the law, or they would just follow the same route as the 1,542 suspects arrested during the 2019 elections, which Kimpact Development Initiative, said were released in 2020 through one means or the other without being prosecuted.
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