WHEN it comes to Nigerian politics, there is more to everything than meets the eyes. The situation is so convoluted that unravelling it might be an attempt in futility. It takes a lot of thankless efforts to make sense out of Nigeria and its political intrigues. A good example is the recent Senate approval of the 22.7 trillion naira of the “ways and means” loan from the CBN. Since the emergence of the Muhammadu Buhari administration, what we’ve witnessed is the executive interference and politicisation of the apex bank. Despite its legal and constitution branding as an independent institution, the Central Bank of Nigeria, thanks to Buhari’s incessant wrongheaded policies, is now regarded as another arm of government. It has become so preposterous that, against all legal and economic rationale, the Federal Government can now put its hand in the bank’s purse to bail itself out from its revenue shortfalls.
Apparently, Nigeria has an expenditure problem. The Buhari’s administration has devised innovative ways to spend money it has no foresight or knowledge to create. As a result, we find ourselves in a situation whereby over 95 percent of our revenue is now used for debt-servicing, and our debt profile, both locally and internationally, keeps skyrocketing. It will take a more serious and determined administration to set again the path of our nation’s economy in an upward trajectory. Without that political will to cut excessive spending wrapped in high-sounding bureaucratic programmes and inefficient social welfarism, Nigerians should be bracing up for another recession, or even this time, a depression. Maintaining a strong economy requires the strong tripod of reducing inflation, generating revenues and creating an enabling environment for optimal production of goods and services. With respect to the first two, this administration hasn’t done their best work. And given the regulatory barrage and cynical policies towards private businesses, this administration is also lagging behind in the optimisation of the volume of production. These are the real issues.
For now, we can pretend as though these issues are nonexistent. We can try to borrow our way out of this economic impasse. But the problem with borrowing is like a man fighting to stay afloat in a quicksand. The more he tries, the more he sinks. It’s no wonder our country is sinking. The next administration will have a lot to tackle. Some of the social programmes rolled out by this administration will need to be reviewed and audited to determine their efficiency and economic output. These programmes should be strictly judged by their merit, not how well meaning they are. The underlying assumption that a programme should be reviewed according to what is hoped-for rather than the consequences of the programme themselves is a fallacy. Beyond the cliched campaign for subsidy removal, the next administration also needs to block certain leakages that are packaged as product of good intentions. The goal of a government is not to feel benevolent, but to deliver to its people the dividends of democracy. Good intentions alone don’t make good policies.
Above, I mentioned the hostility of this present administration to private businesses. It came to be as a shock when I heard Buhari’s media aide, Femi Adesina, admit on national TV that “governments don’t create job. The private business does.” It’s surprising because such belief and admission are antithetical to the position of this admiration. In my mind, it seems to me that Adeshina is only thinking out loud, the failure of his boss. Obviously, since Buhari’s administration is coming to a closure, many of his aides and sympathisers can now begin to say the truth to his face.
Even though they are in the same political party, methinks Tinubu is a more celebral and stoic leader than Buhari. Yes, we can’t yet tell the future. But Tinubu, unlike the ex khaki man turned president, is a businessman. And as a businessman, he understands the intricate details of what it means to run a business. He understands the adverse effects ad-hoc policies and improvisations will have on SME. And say whatever you like about Asiwaju, he knows how to create wealth. For a man who transformed Lagos economy (a non oil-rich state) into a place of envy, you can expect him to find innovate ways to generate revenues. The challenge therefore will be: does he have the political will to go against the tide of his predecessor? Can he organise his government in such a way that gives the private sector a breathing space? What about the challenge of Buhari’s sympathisers in his cabinet? Will they desert their idol’s pet projects or will they serve as saboteurs to undermine the incoming administration? These are questions that beg for answers. These are questions that will determine the direction the nation takes in the next four years. It’s a long walk.
Many of us await the politics of our economy for the next four years. We await its twists and turns and what it will mean to the common Nigerians. For an administration yet to win the admiration of most of his populace (there are more people that voted against Tinubu in this election than those who voted for him, an unprecedented event in Nigerian electoral system), this might be a golden opportunity for him to redeem himself in the minds and hearts of his people. And honestly, it doesn’t take much to win Nigerians over. As history beckons, Tinubu might be the one to change the economic tide of our nation. But all that will be determined by one thing and one thing alone: his honest assessment of the failures of his predecessor and forerunner, Muhammad Buhari.
