KUNLE ODEREMI writes on the lack of compromise that appears to be the bane of the main opposition parties in the bid to forge an alliance while alleging a plan by the ruling, All Progressives Congress to foist a one-party state on Nigerians.
THERE was much frenzy within the ranks of the opposition part leaders as the country entered the New Year. Echoes of the rested moves by the presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and the Labour Party to form a coalition ahead of the 2027 election reverberated again. NNPP’s Musa Kwankwaso had denied speculations of political pact with Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, for the 2027 presidency. “the most annoying thing is that I heard from a source the latest I have heard that some people in the PDP told a group of 45 (Islamic) scholars that there is a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years, Kwankwaso will subsequently rule for four years and peter obi, eight years; this totally untrue; it is not true,” Kwankwanso unequivocally to the Hausa Language programme on BBC. Peter also vehemently disassociated himself from the so-called pcat , just the Labour Party said it could go alone to win the next election given its performance index in the 2023 general election. It added that there was no automatic ticket for any presidential hopeful on the platform of the party.
The issues thrown up by the controversial pact, according to some analysts, summarise the confusion within the opposition in the bid to evolve a common winnable strategy against the ruling All progressives Congress (APC) in the next election. In the midst of the staccato among the PDP, NNPP and the LP over the idea of forming a coalition or forging a merger, the promoters of the League of Northen Democrats (LND) unveiled an ambitious plan to facilitate a formidable national party with the sole aim of relegating the influence and grip of the PDP and the APC on the political lever of Nigeria. LND plans to co-opt dissidents from the PDP and the APC into its fold along with other like-minds spread across the country. The league said in a statement by Convener of the LND, Dr Umar Ardo, claimed that the core national challenges of poverty, insecurity, institutional decay, corruption, and economic stagnation are due to poor governance by the APC and PDP, as the parties prioritized self-serving interests, entrenched mediocrity, and neglected internal democracy. Hitherto the initiative of some northern political leaders, the LND announced its intention to team up with like-minds in the southern parts of the country in the quest to form a new party as a “credible alternative by institutionalizing meritocracy, promoting accountability, and ensuring the emergence of leaders with proven competence and integrity.” It would recalled that Obi had also denied that he was approached by Atiku Abubakar, or any of his loyalists on a speculated merger of political structures ahead of the general election. A spokesman for Labour Party’s presidential campaign organisation, Tanko Yunusa, and the national publicity secretary of the NNPP, Ladipo Johnson, also disowned any merger talks with the PDP. This followed a report that quoted the Deputy national spokesman for the PDP, Ibrahim Abdullahi, that the three leading opposition figuresa were discussing the possibility of a merger. He claimed that Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi were willing to form a formidable alliance capable of comfronting APC at the next election. Some party buffs across party lines argue that the lack of consensus among the trio of PDP, NNPP and LP seem to be stumbling block. The three political leaders sybolise the faces of their individual parties. Save for the PDP, which is still enmeshed in an uncanny power struggle between the camp loyal to former Vice President Atiku and that comprising the allies of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr Nyesom Wike, as well as the LP that is not totally on the same page with Obi over party matters, Kwakwanso is the later ego of the NNPP, though some forces claimed the party is on an auto pilot. Therefore, the bane of the efforts to build a formidable coalition is personality clash and ambition to run for the presidency in 2027.
From other lands
The role of alliances has proved to be fundamental in the history of presidential elections in a number of African countries in the last two decades. Lately, more countries in the continent have recorded cases of opposition parties defeating the parties in power. The list of such countries includes Nigeria, when three major parties and the splinter of a fringe party defeated the then peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015. It was the first major upset since the country restored civil rule after prolonged years of military autocracy. Other countries where similar electoral upsets have been recorded are: Liberia, Lesotho, Somalia, Zambia, Cape Verde; Seychelles, Malawi; DR Congo, Sierra Leone, Madagascar;Ghana, Benin, The Gambia; Mauritius, Malawi; Madagascar; Mali, Senegal, Lesotho, Somalia, Niger, Zambia, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Benin, Mauritius, Kenya; Madagascar; Senegal, Mauritius, Burundi, Central African Republic, Niger, Congo, Zambia and Cape Verde.
According to researchers, many opposition parties tend to fizzle out after an election only to rev up their machinery at the threshold of another season of electoral battles. Besides, a lot of them are founded by personalities of individuals, who exerts near absolute control. So, the parties are deficient in internal democracy, often enmeshed in inter-party and intra-party conflicts, short of funds, weak in strong base and experience. The trend is a sharp contrast to the ugly scenario of sit-tight leadership as the continent boasts the eight longest-serving presidents. The presidents, who have ruled for periods ranging from two to five decades, maintain their grip on power through the manipulation of institutions and constitutions. Togo, Comoros, Cameroon are among such countries with longest-serving leaders in the saddle. There is President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of the Equatorial Guinea, who came to power in 1979 through a military coup. He possesses the ignoble record of the longest running president in the world. He transmuted to a civilian president in 1982.
One party state
In spite of the lack of compromise on their part, the major opposition leaders and their associates alleged that the APC was working assiduously to turn Nigeria to a one party state. With the APC being declared winner of some offseason governorship elections, the PDP, NNPP and LP had accused the ruling party of deliberate attempt to castrate the opposition and foist one party on the country. Atiku, in a statement by his media aide, Paul Ibe, in the wake of the last general election, had alleged that Nigeria was witnessing a situation where what the APC lost in the 2023 elections in Nasarawa, Zamfara, Kano and Plateau states, were being delivered to them through the courts. “These are clearly ominous signs that threaten not just our faith in the electoral and judicial system but evincing that our democracy is compromised. It is also crystal clear that the ruling party will not desist from this inglorious ideology of ‘snatch, grab and run away with power.”However, in a spontaneous response, the presidency through Chief Bayo Onanuga, had accused PDP and Atiku’s spokesman of throwing caution to the winds. Similarly, the LP alleged that the APC was iinstigating crises in opposition parties as an avenue to either hijack the parties or lure their members into the APC. One of its chieftains, Marcel Ngogbehei, had alleged in a statement that the APC was working to compromise major opposition parties in the North and East,. He claimed: “The APC is making efforts to turn Nigeria into a one-party system. They are busy working out machinations and trying to buy up political parties in the East and North, aiming to weaken the opposition ahead of the 2027 general election.”
A major problem of the parties is what some observers described as the absence of principles among members of the political class. This has encouraged politicians to switch camps at the slightest opportunity on the basis of personal gain. This is evident in the number of members of the National Assembly that have defected to rival parties on the excuse of ‘internal crisis’ in the party that brought them into the legislative arm of government. Executive Director, Finance of the Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority (OORBDA), Ayobami Oyalowo underlined the issue of defection, expressing hope that the situation could change in the future. “Moving from one party to another has never appealed to me as a person. While I admit that there should be freedom of association, I also understand that political parties ought to be built on some principles and unshakeable foundations. In most countries of the world, we have leftists, rightists, centrists etc. Each of the political parties are firmly rooted in clear ideologies and basic principles that are associated with whatever political doctrine they subscribe to. In Nigeria on the other hand, lots of people see political parties merely as special purpose vehicles to attain political office and nothing more. That is why there have been some grey areas and a lot of the ordinary people are confused as they cannot differentiate between the different political parties.I hope as our politics mature, our various political parties will become more ideological and focused on ideals that clearly separate one party from the other,” he said.
In 1999, when Nigeria returned to civil rule, there was no t much disequilibrium in power equation. Power was not so skewed against the opposition. At the end of the 2023 general election, the ruling APC had a majority of the 36 states making up the country. It got 20 states; PDP had 13 states; while the Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the NNPP had one state each. In the National Assembly, the APC secured majority seat among the 109 Senators in the Upper Red Chambers. It got 60; PDP 37; LP (eight); SDP (two); and while APGA had one seat. A similar scenario played out in the House of Representatives. But the equation has been altered by the decision of some lawmakers from the opposition defecting to the ruling APC. With the back and forth scenario characterising the initiative by the opposition to forge an alliance, analysts argue that the exiting delicate balance in power structure is subject to further changes in the new year.
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