2022 issues that may determine 2023 poll outcome

2022 issues that may determine 2023 poll outcome

220
Reach the right people at the right time with Nationnewslead. Try and advertise any kind of your business to users online today. Kindly contact us for your advert or publication @ Nationnewslead@gmail.com Call or Whatsapp: 08168544205, 07055577376, 09122592273

A MAJOR political event coming up next year is the conduct of the general election. In this report, KUNLE ODEREMI identifies some fundamental issues that have dominated the political scene in 2022 and are bound to have far-reaching effects on the 2023 elections.

In less than four days, the current year would wind down for 2023, the year Nigerians are expected to go to the poll, the seventh of such since 1999, to elect a new set of leaders. There are various degrees of permutations about the way the elections might go, with some analysts envisaging a likely runoff among two of the candidates perceived as being in the lead so far. This follows what they consider as the dynamics that make the forthcoming election perhaps, the fiercest poll in the annals of general elections in the country.

mgid.com, 677780, DIRECT, d4c29acad76ce94f

Statistics on the elections, which will begin with the presidential and National Assembly poll show a significant rise in requirements in the core areas of logistics, manpower, polling units and most importantly, voting population. The latter has risen almost geometrically from the 84 million that were registered voters to more than 93.5 million. The INEC appropriation for the conduct of the 2023 elections is a whopping N355 billion as against N189 billion in 2019. The number of the polling units has risen by 56, 872 in 2019 to 176, 846, just as the number of ad hoc staff for the forthcoming elections is one million, while not less than100, 000 vehicles and 4,200 boats will be deployed to convey electoral materials across the land and waterways. With a total of 18 political parties fielding candidates at the state and federal constituencies, the challenges before the stakeholders appear overwhelming and arduous. Against this background, nine key factors hold the key to the success or otherwise of the 2023 general election that is expected to end the two terms of four years each of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

 

INEC

In preparation for the election, President Buhari said INEC had been given all that it requires and deserves under the law to conduct credible elections in 2023. The commission has, in turn, consistently promised to deliver on free, fair and credible elections. It has also sought the cooperation, support and collaboration with other critical stakeholders in the quest to fulfill the promise and deliver on core mandate on election. Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) have been swopped across the states, while more national commissioners have been brought onboard to fill existing vacancies under the law. The INEC has equally engaged various stakeholders to ensure a seamless synergy and collaboration before, during and after the general election. But the most intractable issue, so far, bothers on insecurity following the increasing vicious attacks on INEC offices and other facilities. Some important items have been destroyed, escalating the logistics requirements and financial burden of the commission especially in the last few months. More than 47 attacks were reportedly carried out on INEC facilities in the last 33 months. The nature of the attacks includes arson and vandalisation. In fact, the chairman of the commission, Professor Mahmud Yakubu said the commission had recorded 50 attacks in 15 states, a trend he said was systematic and coordinated. “They are targeted at derailing our commission from conducting free and credible elections; we are recovering and will recover.

But if these attacks continue to January and February next year, it will be difficult for us to recover,” he declared recently.  And apart from crying out over the serious implications of the act of violence on INEC offices, the national chairman of the commission, professor Mahmood Yakubu has said the body can only collaborate and engage with agencies of government empowered to guarantee the safety of lives and property to stem the tide and pave the way for a congenital atmosphere for the general election.

 

Security 

With the total number of INEC offices attacked by criminal elements standing at 50 till date, the role of law enforcement personnel cannot be overemphasised as the general election fast approaches. Such dastardly acts have spread to 11 states in the last two years, with the ugly trend almost becoming a recurring decimal in Imo State especially, where at least four INEC offices have been destroyed in the last few months. The situation in that state, as well as Osun and Ogun states necessitated the Inspector General of Police, Usman Baba to read the Riot Act that armed personnel apply maximum force to checkmate the criminals attempting to frustrate the conduct of the election and make the State apparently ungovernable. Thus, two of such criminals were killed and another two apprehended by law enforcement personnel when the criminals attacked the INEC local government office in Owerri weeks ago. But with the Nigeria Police Force incapacitated by inadequate manpower, and personnel, there is deep concern among the populace and the international community about the conduct of the poll. This is compounded by the fact that the other arms of security agencies have been overstretched due to the long-drawn battle against insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, oil theft, and other violent criminals in parts of the country. Nonetheless, the chief of army staff.

Lucky Irabor and other officers of the top hierarchy of the Armed Forces have assured of adequate security before, during and after the elections, enjoining politicians to comport themselves and their supporters and party members in the interest of peace, stability and tranquility in the land.

 

Money politics

There is serious cash squeeze in the last few weeks with most experts blaming the development on the attempt by politicians to have enough cash to throw around during the election. The campaign has been at the lowest ebb since INEC lifted ban on electioneering in September, with  majority of the candidates electing to hold consultations with mass-based organisations and groups to market their programmes if elected. It is being envisaged that there will be a sharp rise in the frenetic bid by candidates to lobby voters from January 2023. More money could find its way into the political arena for the purpose of raising the bar in terms of money in circulation, with the trend expected to take  a new twist at the dawn of the election proper in February next year regardless of the electoral valves designed to check the menace of vote-buying and vote-selling. Under the new electoral act, the new limit that political parties and candidates can spend in elections, as well as receive as donation is between N1billion and N5 billion for presidential candidates. How the ceiling will be enforced to curb inducements remains in the belly of time.

ALSO READ FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE 

 

BVAS

There has been huge hue and cry lately on the capacity of the bimodal voter accreditation system (BVAS) to insulate the system against gross abuse and subversion of the rights of voters. It is part of the modern technologies introduced by INEC to enhance the credibility of the nation’s electoral process. BVAS eliminates most of the challenges associated with accreditation, identity and other fundamental features of prospective voters. INEC has declared that the reservation expressed by a couple of political leaders on BVAS lacked merit saying the technology has been tested and confirmed to be reliable and appropriate for the conduct of the 2023 elections.

 

Electoral act 2022

The elections constitute the first major acidic test of the Electoral Act 2022. Though it had been applied to conduct off-season elections in few states, the general election provides the real and major contest that would shape the next political dispensation. Consequences could go a long way in boosting and shoring up the credibility of the electoral process of the country.

 

Voting pattern

More youth have been registered ahead of the election, ditto women. The level of political consciousness among the two categories has added value to political contest and raised the stakes in the coming polls. The youth and women make up the large chunk of the 12 million new voters in the 92 million voter register to be used for the elections. The impact of the new scenario is underscored by the greater attention, consideration and commitment of the political parties to issue concerning the political participation and involvement of the youth and women in politics in the buildup to the epic general election.

 

Ethno-religious factor

Emotive issues bordering on regional, ethnic and religious considerations have become a strong strand in the politics of the current dispensation. These factors were pronounced and predominated in the choice of candidates for presidency and their running mates. Suffice to say that the campaigns have been run along ethno-religious lines causing tension. Interventions by the national peace committee to rein in the agents provocateurs may pale into insignificance due to intransigence.

 

Ethnic agitations and non-state actors’ threats

Virtually all the ethnic nationalities making up the federation have one form of bottled up emotions on the state of the Nigerian union. While a few have resorted to untoward means to ventilate their anguish and frustration, others have subdued theirs for different reasons. Whereas the establishment of development commissions has tamed some of the violent agitations, other agitators have sustained undue pressure on the state culminating in fears that the activities of such group of individuals could have dire consequences for the conduct of the general election, especially in the South-East. Pleas for compromise and dialogue by the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, eminent citizens from the area and across the country have not been heeded, going by the violent attacks on INEC facilities in the South-East.

 

States to watch

In the final buildup to the general election, the trend of events in some states could go a long way in determining the tilt of the poll proper. This is because of the factor of some personalities, incumbency factor, internal rumbling in the leading political parties, pedigree of candidates, politics of godfathers, son-of-the-soil syndrome, political upsets during the offseason governorship poll in Osun, as well as the historical antecedents of states, including Lagos, Kano, Kaduna and Rivers states at general elections. On the whole, some of the states to watch comprise Oyo, Rivers, Osun, Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Anambra, Adamawa, Katsina, Niger, Abia, Enugu, Kwara and Kogi.

With the countdown to the 2023 general election to start within some weeks, three categories of stakeholders possess the ace on the successful conduct of the election. These include the electoral umpire, INEC, which has the statutory duty to monitor, organize and conduct elections.  The other stakeholders are  members of the political class, who are required to demonstrate undisguised equanimity, discipline and political  to guarantee a smooth and peaceful transition to the next political dispensation. The third stakeholders are the agencies of government saddled with safeguarding lives and property. For the military, the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Lt-General Lucky Irabor has assured the public of adequate security to complement the effort of the police in charge of civil security. And the IGP, Usman Baba has promised that his men and those from other sister agencies are on top of their game. But he has a message for the generality of Nigerians: “Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies are on top of the situation; we are calling on the members of the public to assist us with credible information about these criminals.”


Reach the right people at the right time with Nationnewslead. Try and advertise any kind of your business to users online today. Kindly contact us for your advert or publication @ Nationnewslead@gmail.com Call or Whatsapp: 08168544205, 07055577376, 09122592273



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *