Two United States-based democracy institutions, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI) have expressed concern about the actions of separatist groups and unofficial security forces in the South-east and South-west of Nigeria, warning that they could pave way for election violence in 2023.
Both bodies which issued the alert, on Friday, after a delegation met with journalists at a conference in Abuja, contended that the proliferation of regional security forces, such as Amotekun in the South-West and Ebube Agu in the South-East, would increase the likelihood of election violence while the secessionist activity by the Indigenous People of Biafra might have an adverse effect on voter turnout due to apathy.
The NDI and IRI said despite most presidential candidates signing the first peace accord facilitated by the National Peace Committee, there have been at least 50 reported incidents of electoral violence, occurring across 40 local government areas in 24 states. The institutes observed that the security challenges, if left unaddressed, could negatively impact the credibility of the elections and increase the risk of post-election violence.
The report read, “The delegation notes consensus among stakeholders that insecurity is the primary risk factor for the 2023 elections. Nigeria is facing record levels of insecurity in 2022 and conflict has become more geographically widespread and more complex.
“Increasing banditry and attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province in the North East and North West threaten to undermine logistics and strain capacity to secure elections. The continuing conflict between herder militias and farming communities drives displacement and exacerbates sectarian tensions in states that are likely to be key electoral battlegrounds.
“Secessionist agitation by IPOB/Eastern Security Network in the South East threatens to depress voter turnout. If the election is perceived to be illegitimate, the group could gain significant traction, and potentially become directly involved in post-election violence.
READ ALSO: 2023: We’re Not Under Pressure To Compromise Election, Media Misquoted Us – Military
“The proliferation of informal security elements – such as Amotekun in the South West and Ebube Agu in the South East – further complicates security and increases opportunities for election violence and malfeasance.”
The organizations however, commended the Independent National Electoral Commission, for the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Automated System.
The institutes warned: “If there were to be a widespread malfunction of the BVAS machines as occurred with the smart card readers in 2015, it could undermine the perceived legitimacy of the elections and spark violence.”
While saying that although Nigeria had witnessed a surge in the registration of young people, the organisations said there were still significant barriers for young people and other traditionally marginalised groups to participate in the electoral process as candidates.
According to them, the overall percentage of women running for elections has declined from 13 per cent in 2019 to 8.9 per cent in 2023, a development the NDI and IRI described as a “disappointment” for Africa’s largest democracy.
While urging INEC to clarify how underage voters, double registrations and any other criteria that would result in a voter being removed from the voter roll will be handled, they called on the commission to conduct national stress tests of the BVAS machines and the IReV system to ensure they are prepared to function effectively on election day across more than 176,000 polling units.They said, “INEC should complete surveys of internally displaced persons camps in all states, and provide clear guidelines on the process by which IDPs, including those not living in IDP camps, will vote in the election.
