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As the year 2023 ends today, IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI chronicles some of the events and controversial issues that beclouded the year, thus making it one of the most turbulent in Nigerian political history. He also highlights the hard lessons all stakeholders in the country can pick from the outgoing year.
TODAY marks the end of the year 2023. To many observers, the year will go down as one of the most challenging and turbulent years in Nigerian democratic history due to the legion of political and socio-economic issues that almost sank the country over the past 12 months. At the dawn of the year, there were glowing expectations that it would bring about a gradual rekindling of the economic and political hopes of Nigerians notoriously dashed during its precedent. However, the year 2023 turned out to birth more retrogression than progression according to political watchers and national economic statistics.
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Being an election year, 2023 threw up many surprises and witnessed many political wins, defeats, and deep politicking from the length and breadth of the country. It is a year that defied prophesies and exposed the hollowness in the predictions of the ‘gods’ of men. It is also the year that the ‘Emi lokan’ Tinubu accomplished his age-long political dream, despite not being the favourite of his party’s national leadership. During the year 2023, the world also saw how a Third Force pulled an unimaginable feat by defeating a ruling party in its fiercest stronghold, having been armed with a consuming hunger of young Nigerians to upstage the extant political order. To some observers, the so-called ‘Obidients’ staged more of a coercive than democratic and ideological style of politicking during the election year, which undoubtedly taught them some hard lessons.
Many were of the view that the year 2023 generally saw a further dip in the Nigerian governance project. They said it was the year when the country’s political and electoral landscape ferociously reeked with money-bag politicking, crude godfatherism, calculated disenfranchisement, voter suppression, vote-buying, severe primordial sentiments, and religious bigotry which further widened the country’s Fault Lines and left Nigerians more divided than before. This, to some other observers, was in addition to the deeper deficiency of internal democracy that afflicted the leading political parties in the country, and the proliferation of killings, terror attacks, and kidnappings that made some states in the country, especially those of Northern extraction very ungovernable in the outgoing year.
In the 2023 post-election period, observers said the country’s judiciary, instead of functioning effectively as an unbiased temple of justice, however, became the omnipresent god of election matters that decided who won and lost on the balloting field instead of the people, who should truly hold the electoral power.
On the economic front, the year 2023, moreover, saw how a series of bold but coarsely implemented economic policies of the federal government made life more miserable for Nigerians, sending over 130 million of them into multi-dimensional poverty and pummelling cash crunch. The year will truly not be forgotten in a hurry. But what are the biggest issues that multi-coloured the 2023 calendar year?
The naira redesign and scarcity
One of the most traumatic issues that dominated political and economic discourse in the first quarter of the outgoing year is the naira redesign policy and the eventual scarcity of the currency.
The embattled former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, had on October 26, 2022 announced the redesigning of the naira notes, pegging the deadline for the use of the naira old notes at January 31, 2023. But less than eight days into the year, the ex-CBN boss asked commercial banks in the country to stop over-the-counter withdrawal of the redesigned naira notes. This, coupled with the last-minute apprehension of Nigerians to get the new notes before the deadline, created an immense socio-economic crisis that resulted in nationwide protests, attacks, and burning of banks in different parts of the country.
As the naira scarcity bites harder, the CBN later launched a cash swap programme in all 774 LGAs in the country and extended the deadline for the use of the old naira notes. But this still did not stop the hardship being experienced by Nigerians as the general election drew near. Amid the crisis, some state governments sued the federal government over the naira redesign policy, which some argue was deliberately plotted by Muhammadu Buhari’s government in a bid to frustrate the chances of President Bola Tinubu, who was then the standard-bearer of the All Progressives Congress. But the policy ended up fetching the Buhari’s government more hatred from Nigerians before the Supreme Court toned down the tension by ruling that the old N200, N500, and N1000 notes remain legal tender until December 31, which was later obeyed by the apex bank in March this year.
The presidential election
Arguably the biggest event that saturated political headlines and commentaries in the year 2023 is the February/March general election held across the states of the federation. Despite being the most expensive in the country’s electoral history and steeled with both the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the 2022 Electoral Act, many observers had expected the election to further strengthen the country’s 23-year-old democracy and restore the depleted public confidence in the electoral process, but the poll fell short of the reasonable expectations of the global audience as various incidences of voter suppression, intimidation, thuggery and vote-buying cast a pall over its credibility, according to the Joint Election Observation Mission of the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI).
According to some observers, the election offered the tightest political race in the country’s history since the end of the military rule in 1999, such that the three leading presidential candidates, Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Third Force Peter Obi of the Labour party (LP) all won 12 states each if the Federal Capital Territory is to be counted. However, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Tinubu the winner of the highly contested poll having garnered a total of 8,794,726 votes. However, having polled a total of 6,984,520 and 6,101,533 votes respectively, both Atiku and Obi rejected the election result and contested it at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, but came back with so-called ‘miscarriages’ of justice, only for the Supreme Court to finally dashed their hopes of reclaiming their purportedly ‘stolen’ mandate.
According to Jideofor Adibe, a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, and professor of Government Studies at North Western University, Mafikeng South Africa, one major defining feature of the 2023 presidential election was the rise of Obi and his cross-party supporters known as the ‘Obidients’.
He said: “The Obi phenomenon was bolstered by Christians who were angered by the ruling APC’s same faith (Muslim-Muslim) ticket and the possibility of a Muslim being the president of the country for 24 uninterrupted years (eight years for Buhari, potential eight years for Tinubu and another eight years when power returns to the North, most likely to a Muslim).
Adibe stressed that: “Obi’s candidacy also benefitted from those uncomfortable with the prospect of Atiku Abubakar, a Northern Fulani Muslim, succeeding Buhari, a fellow Fulani Muslim. There were equally those who supported him on the premise that in the interest of ‘equity, justice, and fair play’, someone from the South-East should succeed Buhari.”
To the political observer, on the general scale, the presidential campaigns and the elections showed clearly that the country still has a long way to go in its journey to nationhood. He said, “With the weaponisation of ethnicity and religion during the election, and INEC clearly underperforming despite the huge resources plowed into the conduct of the elections, questions have been raised not just about the appropriateness of the Western model of liberal democracy for our country, but also about the impact of elections on the nation-building process in the country.
Fuel subsidy gone, forex market unified
The year 2023 also witnessed some sweeping economic reforms and how the government’s unsystematic preparations for their multi-layered negative effects bite hard on the livelihood of many Nigerians. Two of the reforms that all through the year made life very miserable for many Nigerians were the fuel subsidy removal and unification of the country’s forex market. Though the Buhari administration reportedly included only a six-month payment of the petrol subsidy in the 2023 annual budget, some economists say the pronouncement of the subsidy removal by President Tinubu during his swearing-in ceremony triggered the heavy economic misery that gripped the already impoverished citizenry in the second half of the year 2023. Many international observers had commended the Tinubu’s government for the bold pronouncement, but the scarcity of petrol and its eventual price hike that trailed the president’s pronouncement became very intense for Nigerians to bear as many of them groaned under high inflation, skyrocketing transport fares and huge running cost for their businesses. Though the federal government afterward came up with some palliative measures to cushion the effects of the subsidy death, the interventions were later reported to have little or no effect as they could only cater for a fraction of the country’s huge population.
However, while the petrol subsidy removal resultant challenges were mounting, the unification of the forex market also appeared to have dealt another huge blow as it resulted in a never-ending devaluation of the Naira, which all through the last quarter of the year, defied all efforts by the CBN to rescue the situation and ameliorate the sufferings it consistently brought to Nigerians.
The Senate presidency battle
On the political front, another dominant political issue of the year was the jostling for the leadership of the 10th National Assembly. After Tinubu’s emergence as the country’s 16th president, the ruling APC had picked a former Akwa-Ibom State governor, Godswill Akpabio as its preferred candidate for the legislative hot seat, but a former governor of Zamfara State, Senator Abdulazeez Yari kicked against the party’s decision and went toe to toe with Akpabio in an election. However, in the end, the former Akwa-Ibom governor edged him, garnering 63 votes, and leaving him with 46 votes. Even though Senator Yari later protested, saying he felt betrayed by the outcome of the 1oth NASS leadership election result, Akpabio clung to the Senate Presidency and later skilfully weathered the storms that roared against his leadership in the later parts of the outgoing year. But the shape the legislature will take in 2024 under his watch is still left to be seen.
Judiciary controversial verdicts on election petitions
The year 2023 also saw the judiciary come under heavy criticism in the last quarter of the year owing to the widespread public criticisms that greeted the verdicts of the Nigerian judges who presided over the litany of petitions that trailed the conclusion of the general election. Aside from the litigation war that rented the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal against Tinubu’s presidency, there were also a series of election petitions in virtually all the states of the federation where governorship and legislative elections were held, as the aggrieved candidates contested the election result at the state tribunals and subsequently the Appeal Court. However, the various pronouncements and judgments delivered by the judges dominated public discourse during the year as they appeared to be supportive of those with strong influence at the corridor of power, much to the severe depletion of confidence in the country’s judiciary. Many observers claimed the highest spenders clandestinely determined the direction of court verdicts during the year. Some even said the country’s judiciary was greatly hijacked and compromised during the year, but a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and former Member of the Presidential Advisory Committee on the Prerogative of Mercy (PACPM), Chief Bolaji Ayorinde, told Sunday Tribune that the judiciary is still largely independent, but needs to do more in 2024 to further establish, deepen and demonstrate that independence to the generality of Nigerians.
Certificate forgery saga
Another bone of contention that reared during the year was the certificate forgery saga levelled against President Tinubu by Atiku in his attempt to reclaim the lost presidential mandate by hook and crook. The former vice president had approached the Chicago State University, requesting Tinubu’s academic records on the claim that the one the president submitted to INEC may not have been the authentic one.
In response to the request, a United States of America Court ordered the university to release Tinubu’s certificate to Atiku, however, the release threw up more controversy as many Nigerians debated the authenticity of the academic credential due to the gender disparity it carried and signature supposedly not appended by the designated officer of the university as of the time Tinubu reportedly graduated from the school. While some observers opined that the certificate saga initiated by Atiku and compounded by Obi were incendiary and ill-motivated antics by the two men to settle political scores against Tinubu, others asserted that the controversy that shrouded the president’s academic credentials put the country’s global reputation on the brink in 2023, but the Supreme Court final upholding of Tinubu’s victory later laid the matter to rest during the last quarter of the year. However, Obi and his youthful supporters have claimed an identity and legitimacy crisis still hovers around Tinubu’s presidency.
Gov/deputy governors’ friction
In the outgoing year, one other political issue that raged successively is the age-long friction that often exists between state governors and their supposed second-in-commands across the country. All through the year, two deputy governors were in the eyes of the storm: Phillip Shaibu of Edo State and Lucky Aiyedatiwa. Both men almost suffered impeachment, but for the Federal High Court in Abuja who stopped their principals from booting them out of office through the state assemblies over irreconcilable differences and allegations of gross misconduct. However as fate would have it, both men weathered the storm unscathed. While Shaibu was able to reach a rapprochement with his principal and Edo State governor, Godwin Obaseki, Aiyedatiwa succeeded his boss, Rotimi Akeredolu, some days ago after the former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) passed on having battled prostate cancer for several months.
Widened cracks within leading political parties
Also during 2023, the cracks within the three leading political parties at the general election became wider. Observers were of the view that the apparent absence of strong internal democracies within the parties signposted their leadership crisis which also became the subject of heated political debates during the outgoing year.
For the ruling party, its trouble reportedly began when its former National Vice Chairman (North-West), Dr Salisu Lukman accused the party’s former chairman Senator Abdullahi Adamu, and former National Secretary, Senator Iyiola Omisore of alleged financial impropriety. In a statement he issued around the middle of the year, the APC chieftain had accused both Adamu and Omisore of squandering the sum of N30 billion realised during the sales of the party’s nomination forms for the 2023 elections. Even though they were later absolved of the allegations by the party’s leadership, both men voluntarily resigned their positions in July, according to the chairman of the Progressives Governor’s Forum, Hope Uzodimma, who also won his re-election bid in the later part of the year in one of the most controversial off-cycle elections in the country’s history.
The main opposition party, the PDP, also contended with some internal bruises during the year. In their dissecting of the party’s misfortune, observers were of the view that the party was not able to survive the hammer blow the so-called G-5 governors dealt its presidential race towards the end of 2022. It will be recalled that the G-5 governors led by former Rivers State governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesome Wike, had engaged in a protracted battle with the party’s leadership for zoning its presidential candidate to the North. The aggrieved Wike-led governors had protested that since the party’s National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, hails from the North, the party’s presidential candidate must be zoned to Southern Nigeria. They stressed that should the party insist on fielding a Northern presidential candidate at the 2023 election, Ayu must resign for a Southerner to take over the party’s leadership. But the party insisted that both Ayu and Atiku would remain till the conclusion of the general election, which didn’t augur well with the Wike’s group. The battle dragged on all through the year 2022 and spilled into 2023, culminating in Ayu’s eventual ouster in March this year. But despite the former Benue Senator being axed out of office, while another Northerner, Umar Damagun, took over, the party was still not able to get off the hook during the year. As the year 2024 beckons, observers will be keen to see what becomes of the fortune of the party in the New Year. Some have said the party may likely have a mini-convention in the New Year to resolve its lingering internal wrangling, but only time will tell whether the likes of Wike and others who reportedly orchestrated the party’s misfortune in 2023 would face any punishment.
The Third Force, Labour Party, also fell into a divisive ditch during the outgoing year. In the aftermath of the February 25 presidential election, the party crashed into two parallel factions, one led by Julius Abure and the other led by Lamidi Apapa. All through the year, both factions clashed repeatedly over conflicting court rulings. The crisis peaked in the last quarter of the year when the Apapa faction alleged that the LP presidential candidate, Obi had some discrepancies in his academic certificates. The Apapa faction subsequently went ahead in October to congratulate Tinubu after the Supreme Court affirmed his victory. The faction, however, knocked and mocked Obi for putting in a feeble petition that didn’t take the justices more than 120 minutes to dismiss. But with how the LP leadership crisis panned out in the outgoing year, observers say the party is likely to witness more fractures in the New Year.
Rising banditry, killings, kidnapping
Another constant headline during the outgoing year is the steady rise of banditry, killings, and kidnapping in different parts of the country. According to the National Security Tracker, about 1,228 people were killed and 844 others were kidnapped in the first quarter of the year alone. Abimbola Abatta of the Foundation of Investigative Journalism said, “From the alarming rates of kidnapping and wanton killings to the unsettling incidents of bomb blasts, the year 2023 tested the country’s already fragile security architecture. Different terrorist groups orchestrated attacks in many parts of the country with the North being the hotspot of these attacks.”
According to a report by SBM intelligence, an Africa-focused geopolitical research and strategic communication consulting firm, the cascade of terror attacks, bloodshed, and abductions omitted Nigeria among the 15 most peaceful countries in Africa published in the 2023 Global Peace Index. The year 2023 is ending on a tragic note following the recent attack in Plateau State where no fewer than 160 people were killed and 300 others were wounded on Christmas Eve. The marauding bandits also killed no fewer than eight people at another attack in Taraba State, just as it would be recalled that a total of 155 people were killed and 218 others kidnapped across the country in September according to the investigations by the African Centre for Media, Governance and Peace-building (ACMGP). The outgoing year will truly not be forgotten in a hurry.
Niger coup
During the outgoing year, the battery that afflicted democracy across the West Africa sub-region and the role Nigeria, the self-acclaimed giant of the African continent, played in the whole tussle was another hot topic that dominated political discourse across the country. Following the ousting of the democratically elected government of Niger Republic by military junta, President Tinubu and other presidents in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) rose to rescue the declining state of constitutional democracy on the continent by inflicting economic sanctions to force the Nigerien junta into total compliance. Still, the move was greatly resisted, forcing the West African leaders to consider military activation. But while ECOWAS and the Nigerien military leadership are still at the negotiation table as the year ends today, many observers were critical of the role Nigeria played in the back-and-forth fight to preserve West African democracy during the year.
Off-cycle election
In the penultimate month of the year, INEC’s conduct of the off-cycle elections in Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa State and the many controversies that greeted the results of the polls was another burning political issue that rented the air in the country. Some observers said that even though there were certain technological improvements, the electoral commission still failed the key integrity and credibility test the election offered owing to the widespread vote-buying, publication of fake election results, and other irregularities that marred the polls across the three states. But the off-cycle election coming in 2024 arguably presents the electoral commission another ample opportunity to redeem its image in the country.
Crude godfatherism and unconstitutional presidential intervention
The year 2023 politically winded down with the bitter battle that broke out between the Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, and his aggrieved godfather, Wike. The feud became intense when the state House of Assembly began impeachment proceedings against the governor. As the crisis culminated in the decamping of about 27 PDP lawmakers of the state assembly to the APC, and a series of resignations of commissioners from the Fubara’s cabinet, President Tinubu waded into the dispute and compelled the warring camps to sign an eight-point truce, which appeared to have calmed the fiery storm in the state, even though it was bluntly opposed by some legal practitioners, who argued it was in clear breach of the country’s constitution.
The political lessons
Speaking to Sunday Tribune, a professor of Political Institutions and Comparative Politics at the Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto, Yahaya. T. Baba, said: “There are huge political lessons to learn from the year because just as you know, you can’t be in government forever. What has happened so far in 2023 will teach Nigerian politicians some big lessons, even to those within the same political party. We all saw the revelations the current government has given about how its predecessor performed. So one thing you should know is that whatever you do in government will be exposed. Even if your son succeeded you in power, your trespasses may not likely be concealed. This is a big lesson.
“Another lesson is in the area of religion. I believe with what has happened in 2023, Nigerians have learnt that it is better to pay less attention to the religion and identities of the candidates contesting for elective positions in the country. I think we have all seen that what we should be concerned majorly about is the credibility and integrity of the candidates that are contesting.
“Most importantly, I believe the year has taught Nigerians on what should be their focus during electioneering campaign periods. It has taught us that during elections, we should be concerned about substantive issues such as good governance, national unity, and integration as well as the general well-being of the masses.
“What has happened before and after the 2023 elections has shown that the people have no power and control over what government does and should do in this country. This is because the influence of money, religion, ethnicity, and clannism was what overshadowed the 2023 election and later incapacitated the people from questioning the new government on critical economic policies such as the fuel subsidy removal, consistent hike in fuel prices, and hyperinflations that ravaged them during the year. Going forward, I believe Nigerians should also make good governance their top priority when considering who to vote for in an election. If we all can do this, I think we are going to see significant progress in our fortune,” he added.
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