June 12, 2024, Nigeria commemorated the 25th year of uninterrupted democracy. KUNLE ODEREMI examines how the country has fared and the future of democracy in another 25 years.
NIGERIA has just marked a quarter of a century under civil rule. At the threshold of the transition, the belief among most Nigerians was that the many wrongs committed by a prolonged military interregnum would be corrected in no distant time. Though they knew that democracy was not an end itself but a process towards an end, it was generally assumed that the era of the country being turned to a guinea pig had been consigned to the dustbin; that the table of policy inconsistency and somersault had expired and given way to a period of vision and exactitude. Twenty-five years down the line, the country is still lost in the wilderness; enveloped by a cloud of uncertainty. The ship of state is caught in the tempest on the high sea.
What went wrong such that 25 years into civilian dispensation, those lofty promises made by the major political gladiators that shepherded the return to civil governance fell like a pack of cards? Or is it that the people asked for more than the capacity and capability of those that emerged to manage the resources could withstand? Is there veritable value addition that the political and the economic elites have brought to bear on the citizens?
Are there concrete evidence and assurance that the country will not travel the path that has brought it to the current state of paralysis? Have those privileged few that managed the common patrimony of the country purged themselves of their sins that hold the giant of Africa from meeting the wishes and aspirations of Nigerians? Does the diversity of the country still constitute its staying power despite the cacophonies about lack of inclusiveness?
The questions about why Nigeria remains a paradox of history are legion. The posers continuously beg for answers from the critical stakeholders in the Nigerian project. While some individuals often encapsulate the problem of the country on the legal framework otherwise called the 1999 Constitution, a preponderance of people said the bane of Nigeria is leadership, coupled with followership, which, in their opinion, has neither been altruistic nor patriotic.
In a recent conversation on national issues, former governor of Lagos State, Mr Babatune Fashola (SAN) open a new vista on the frantic search for the way forward for the country. He was curious when certain persons he did not give their names took him up on the future of the country, especially against the backdrop of calls for restructuring. “Some people have made fatalist and unsustainable claims and predictions about the future of Nigeria if there is no restructuring. They have, in my view, wrongly dropped the gauntlet at the door of each president since 1999, including the incumbent, that unless the president restructures Nigeria, nothing will work,” Mr Fashola, who is the immediate past Minister of Works said.
Another prominent person, Major General Ike Nwachukwu also expressed worries over the fit and start state Nigeria has found itself in spite of having civil rule 25 years ago. The former minister, who has participated in two conferences designed to produce an acceptable constitution for the country, is disturbed by what the future holds if no pragmatic measures, particularly a new constitution, are embraced to arrest the descent of the country into the valley. “The new constitution must be subject to a referendum. Anything else will, pretty much, further under-develop us, estrange us and deepen the pains Nigerians currently endure,” Nwachukwu warned. He was a delegate to the National Political Reform Conference (NPRC) held by the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2005 and the 2014 National Conference organised by the government of former President Goodluck Jonathan. He blamed the failure of the past efforts at producing an acceptable constitution since 1999 on leadership ego, thus leaving the country further drifting. “Sadly, the selective implementation of those recommendations through piecemeal amendments of the 1999 Federal Constitution left Nigeria further adrift,” he cautioned.
There were efforts in the last 25 years to retool the constitution of the country to suit the needs of the constituent parts. It dates back to the tenure of President Olusegun Obasanjo to President Goodluck Jonathan and that of President Muhammadu Buhari. Now, the machinery has been put in motion for the same purpose in spite of the huge public fund wasted in the previous attempts. Like many other scholars and experts, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, former CBN governor and current governor of Anambra State, agrees that a country is work in progress. But he finds amazing the frightening state of the nation. He recalls making several interventions in the past to save the near shipwreck Nigeria has assumed.
His words: “In the run-up to the presidential election in early 2015, I published an article in which I warned that whoever won the presidential election would have a pyrrhic victory. I warned that the public finance was broken, and the economy was latently and structurally in avoidable crisis. The last administration chose to play populist politics with the economy (against all advice) by illegally printing more than N22 trillion and amassing public debt as its only way to stay afloat and keeping an illusion of phantom subsidies—petrol, forex, and electricity.
“Now the chicken has come home to roost and Nigeria is paying the very high cost of delayed adjustment with escalating inflation, unsustainable debt service payments, depreciating exchange rate, rising interest rate/poverty and unemployment, a largely insolvent public finance, and compressed GDP in dollar terms. Our population continues to grow astronomically while insecurity threatens food security. Today the once ‘largest economy’ in Africa is now the fourth, with dollar GDP lower than in 2010 or less than 50% of 2014, while per capita GDP is now about $1,200 (down from over $2,500 some years ago!). Our dollar GDP has become a highly volatile variable depending on the exchange rate one uses. We have taken many steps forward but seem to be standing still. What a journey!”
That is the fate and predicament of the giant of Africa as it commences the journey into another a quarter of a century. How long did it take the famed Asian Tigers to rise from near economic obscurity to fame and industrialisation? How did Brazil break the jinx of underdevelopment to attain great heights in technology?
Former secretary general of the Commonwealth, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, is another elder statesman, who has, for the umpteenth time, sounded warning signals on the future of the country. He insists on a new constitution that captures the dreams and aspirations of the people so that Nigeria will no longer totter. President Bola Tinubu was among those that formed the fulcrum of the June 12 struggle that led to the exit of the military from political power to the barracks. The president is constantly under subtle pressure from the tribe of that constituency that battled to restore civil rule on May 29m 1999. Leaders of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) claimed time is running out for the country if it fails to take a decisive action to arrest the current drift.
However, a former Head of State, Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar, whose regime organized the political transition programme that brought about the civilian dispensation, has begged for time on behalf of president Tinubu to tackle the challenges confronting the country.
Abubakar said: “The government faced a very difficult situation and inherited many challenges with the economy, fuel subsidy, and insecurity. Nigerians, as a people want changes to happen quickly. So, my message to them is they should join hands with the government to overcome these challenges.”
President Tinubu appears not lost on the need to move fast in order to save the country from the dark cloud over the sky. At least, his speech at the 2024 Democracy Day held at the seat of power, gave the indication, when he affirmed that, “Our progress has been marked by both triumphs and trials, each serving as a reminder of the preciousness of our democratic principles. As we move forward, let us recommit to the values of inclusivity, accountability, and transparency, ensuring that our democracy not only endures but flourishes for generations to come. The future of Nigeria lies in our hands, in our ability to dream, innovate, and act with courage and conviction. Let us embrace this moment with a renewed sense of purpose, knowing that the path we tread today will shape the Nigeria of tomorrow. This is an invitation for each of us to participate in building a nation where every voice is heard, where every potential is realised, and where every citizen is empowered to contribute to the collective good.”
But there has been more rhetoric on the path of successive Nigerian leaders on the way out of welter of issues that seems to cripple the rise of the country to greater heights. This is attested to by the failed promises of the political leadership to wholly and faithfully implement the avalanche of reports containing far-reaching recommendations capable of unlocking the vast potential of the country. Well enunciated economic policies are haphazardly implemented or abandoned once a new President or leader mounts the saddle.
On the way forward, a former member of the House of Representatives and ex-Director General of Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Dakuku Peterside offered some suggestions: “Nigeria needs innovative leaders capable of articulating our common aspirations and creating an overarching vision of a Nigeria of our dreams. We need transformational leaders to set our priorities right, enthrone meritocracy, do the actual work of inspiring the people and allocating resources to accomplish our shared vision. Without a responsive and responsible leadership, Nigeria will remain in a quandary with all its enormous potentials.”
His views complement the suggestion by former President Jonathan, who acknowledged that democracy remains a work in progress. “Our democracy, though young, has weathered storms and proven its endurance. We must continue deepening our democratic roots to ensure all Nigerians benefit,” he stated.
But where will the country be in another 25 years? Will the teething problems subsist or there will be a transformational leadership based on ideal values that exalt a nation?
The answers to these posers are hidden in the belly of time.
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