WARS are too destructive to serve any conceivable or even coincidental good. However, wars in this age of nuclear and chemical weaponry are certain undesirable. This is because of their capacity for great catastrophic tendencies affecting not only the enemy nation but also innocent and non-innocent man and animals on planet earth. Put succinctly, the third world war, (God forbids) may extinguish man and animals on the planet earth. This world has witnessed numerous wars. I am convinced it will fare better with one less war. The Russo-Ukrainian war has spanned for over 2 years now. I believe that the time for peace is now. If there is any constant in all wars in the past, it is that they always end on the table of negotiation. The Russo-Ukrainian war should not be an exception.
The battle of the underdog and super power
Ukraine is the second largest European country after Russia by land mass. It is a nation with full sovereignty from August 24, 1991, and it helped form the Commonwealth of Independent States (this is an association of countries that were formerly republics of the Soviet Union). As at 2021, Ukraine had a population of 41,442,615 million people. Unfortunately, the current population of Ukraine still stands at 38,005,398 people. The population decline is a result ofhigh emigration rates, high death rates and low birth rates, many of which are incidences of the on-going war with Russia. Russia is the largest country in Europe by land mass. It also has population of 144,708,344 million people. This is against their population of 143.56 million in 2022 (before the war began). Russia started the war in January 2022 with an arsenal of 900,000 active soldiers, 2,000,000 reserve soldiers, 15,857 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,391 aircrafts, 948 helicopters, 49 submarines, 5,977 nuclear warheads (estimated – this is almost half of the entire nuclear warheads on earth) and a military budget $45.8B USD.
Ukraine on the other hand had 196,00 active soldiers, 900,000 reserve soldiers, 3,309 armoured fighting vehicles, 132 aircrafts, 55 helicopters, 0 submarines, 0 nuclear weapons and a military budget $4.7B USD. Comparing both countries military strength at 2022, Ukraine had only 10% of what Russia had in preparation for the war. Russia increased its military budget to $ 160B USD in 2023 and $415B USD in 2024. On the other hand, Ukraine’s military budget increased to $64.8 B USD in 2023 but reduced to $40.83 B USDin 2024. This is a clear case of the Biblical David and Goliath.It is therefore not a surprise that Ukraine had remained defensive until a few weeks ago. All attempts by the United Nations, the Security Council, the International Criminal Court, NATO and the EU to quell Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine proved most unfruitful. Consequently, America and NATO have adopted the alternative of supplying military aids to Ukraine. As at February 2023, Ukraine had received aid from all EU countries, 45 sovereign states and companies all running into several billions of Dollars.
In 2023, Russia sent a diplomatic letter to the United States and NATO warning them to desist from supplying weapons to Ukraine, adding that it was adding fuel to the fires of war and that it could bring unpredictable consequences. President Putin of Russia also warned that he is prepared to use “all means” at his disposal to defend Russian territory. He threatened that the Russian Army Deterrence Forces (including its nuclear weapons) are on combat alert. This statement was to caution other free states from interfering in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Most governments of the world took this threat seriously especially since the United States of America has set a precedent when it unleashed nuclear weapons on Japan in World War II. Consequently, many nations have therefore pledged to withdraw or have actively withdrawn all military aids to Ukraine.
The unexpected turn of events
Most of the Russo-Ukrainian wars were fought within the national boundaries of Ukraine leading to widespread destruction of life, properties and social amenitiesin Ukraine. On 16th June 2024, President Putin presented Russia’s peace proposal. He promised that Russia will end all special military operations in Ukraine if Ukraine abandons its desire to join NATO and withdraw its troops from four regions in Ukraine which have a predominant Russian-speaking population. By the time of this peace proposal, Russia had a lot of military presence in several territories inside Ukraine. All hopes seemed lost for Ukraine.
On August 6 2024, Ukraine breached Russia’s boarder, stunning the world. This Ukraine’s “bold gambit” was planned in complete secrecy and it shifted the playing field of the raging war. Now Ukraine has military presence within over 1 000 square kilometres of the Kursk region of Russia. Russia has withdrawn a lot of its troops in Ukraine to regions surrounding Kursk in a bid to supress the advancement of Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil. However, Russia has been unable to reclaim its lost territories. The question on the lips of everybody is what will be the reaction of Almighty Russia?
Peace as the next course of action
For the first time since the Russo-Ukrainian war began in 2022 Ukraine has a bargain chip – the territories and war prisoners taken in the Kursk region of Russia. Also, the war now has its presence in the Russian home front. Although Russia has withdrawn all negotiations until the lost areas are recovered, Ukraine has shown that it can penetrate Russia and hold its conquered territories. The Ukrainian soldiers have also continued to expand their conquered territories in Russia regardless of Russia’s attempt to stem their progress. It is at this point that I suggest that this is the time to resume peace talk. This is because both parties now have bargain powers. Africa has sat aloof in this war and our economies have suffered for it.
The scarcity of food crops from Ukraine and Russia had caused unprecedented inflation of basic commodities in several parts of Africa. Likewise, the non-availability of the Russian Crude in the international oil market has caused an inflation in the prices of crude oil and refined oil. This has led to a hike in prices of PMS and other products of crude oil and has further worsen the inflation in many parts of the world, including Africa. This happened just as it was forecasted by several persons, including Mr. Frank Isoh, the former Nigerian Ambassador to Ukraine.
Conclusion
I believe that Africa still has a role to play at this crucial moment in time when both Russia and Ukraine have enemy troops on their territory. I therefore urge that the leaders of the African Union, together with the leaders of the United Nations and the Pope should invite the heads of government of Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table to broker peace.
President Bola Tinubu
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the president of Nigeria, which is the most populous black nation and the largest economy in Africa, and the chairman of the Economic Community of West Africa State should spearhead the unification of African Leaders for the parley.
This parley is very critical at this time, since Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapon which may extinguish human race. Russia’s bruised ego can force it to unleash its nuclear reserves thereby ushering in a third world war.If there is a World War III, I am afraid the world may never recover from it. Remember that Russia has more than half of the nuclear weapons on earth and in the space.
The Russo-Ukrainian war has gone on for long enough. Africa cannot afford to keep its hands folded while the powerful openly boasting of use of nuclear weapon.
President Tinubu should therefore orchestrate an African unityto broker peace between Russia and Ukraine now that it is probable.
AARE AFE BABALOLA, OFR, CON, SAN, LL.D (Lond.)
