In a closely contested battle for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied in key swing states, with polling averages revealing a neck-and-neck race just hours before election day.
According to Forbes, the latest data from the New York Times, Emerson College, and FiveThirtyEight point to an unpredictable electoral landscape, where slim margins in pivotal states could tip the balance in either direction.
The New York Times’ final pre-election poll shows Harris holding a slight edge in four of the seven swing states but still within the margin of error, while Trump leads in one state, with two others locked in a statistical tie.
Meanwhile, Emerson College’s recent poll suggests an equally divided picture, favouring Trump in some states where the Times poll gives a slight advantage to Harris.
Below is the look of the seven swing states before a few hours to the election.
1. Pennsylvania
Here, the race remains on a razor’s edge. According to Emerson College, Trump holds a narrow lead at 49%-48%. The New York Times/Siena survey, Morning Consult, and other recent polls all show a 48%-48% tie, with Harris pulling ahead in select polls from Marist, the Washington Post, and the Cooperative Election Study. On average, FiveThirtyEight’s data gives Trump a wafer-thin 0.1-point lead.
2. North Carolina
Trump has a slight 49%-48% lead in Emerson’s poll, while Harris claims a marginal advantage in surveys by the New York Times/Siena (48%-46%) and CNN/SSRS (48%-47%). Other polls, however, give Trump the edge, including Morning Consult, Fox News, and Marist. FiveThirtyEight’s average reflects Trump’s lead by one percentage point.
3. Georgia
Trump shows a consistent lead here, with Emerson polling him at 50%-49% and Morning Consult at 50%-48%, while the New York Times/Siena poll places Harris just ahead at 48%-47%. Trump’s edge extends to a 51%-46% margin in the CES survey, and FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has him up by 1.1 points.
4. Michigan
Emerson and Morning Consult polls indicate a narrow Harris lead of 50%-48% and 49%-48%, respectively, while the New York Times/Siena survey finds them tied at 47%. Additional polling by Marist and others shows Harris in the lead, yet Trump edges out a rare lead in a recent Washington Post survey. On average, Harris leads by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s data.
5. Wisconsin
Harris and Trump are deadlocked at 49% in Emerson’s polling. However, Harris pulls ahead in other polls, including the New York Times/Siena, Marist, CES, and Marquette. Trump maintains a slim lead in Morning Consult, but FiveThirtyEight’s average has Harris up by 0.9 points.
6. Nevada
Here, results are split, with Harris leading 49%-46% in the New York Times/Siena poll, a tie at 48% in Emerson’s poll, and a 51%-47% lead in CES. Trump holds a 48%-47% lead in CNN/SSRS data, and FiveThirtyEight’s average gives him a narrow 0.4-point lead.
7. Arizona
Trump holds sway, leading 49%-45% in the New York Times/Siena survey, 50%-48% in Emerson’s poll, and slightly ahead in CES and earlier surveys by Marist and the Washington Post-Schar School. A tie is indicated in Morning Consult, with a close 48%-47% Harris lead in CNN/SSRS polling. FiveThirtyEight’s data reflects Trump’s lead by 2.3 points.
With leads shifting slightly across polls, the final results depend on extremely narrow margins in these swing states.
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