IN Lagos ruling circle, the political future, fortune and misfortune of two prominent members are being discussed: one, as much as could be said in the open, the other, almost soundlessly.
It is no longer a secret that Mudashiru Obasa is intent on returning as the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly and by the implication the number three person in the state. The truth is, before he lost the seat in absentia, he was a number three like the number one. Well, you could say he was rehearsing how to be number one, an ambition he said was not a sin, and truly an incontestable postulation, only that it doesn’t suggest sound reasoning to defecate on the bed you plan to sleep, simply because you want to show the current occupant that you are doing it because you can.
In Matthew 7:12, Jesus admonishes us thus “Therefore all things whatsoever ye would that men should do to you, do ye even so to them: for this is the law and the prophets”.
With politics now as a high-yield enterprise and Lagos having enough resources for any man’s {or woman’s} greed, anyone who wants to be anything, as low as a Ward councillor, must set some tongues wagging not to talk of a desperate ambition to be promoted from number three to number one. And by confirming he is nursing gubernatorial ambition in his post-impeachment rant the day he returned from America, Obasa has made himself a ready-made material for political talks, gossip, rumours, innuendoes and everything bolt-and-nuts in-between.
That is why being the political issue for now should be a no-issue to him, which is also good for him, because apart from the controversies keeping him in the spotlight and giving him good mentions in gubernatorial conversations, the free massive media coverage whether about his sack, scandals or surreptitious moves to regain his lost paradise, still fall within Phineas T. Barnum’s “all publicity is good publicity”.
Like a Siamese twin, the other supposed authority-wielder being discussed in the state power grid is Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, for whom the GAC members and the lawmakers reportedly sacked Obasa and who the former Speaker, was giving trash-treatment, before the bubble burst for the lawmaker. There is the talk that he may still not finish his term, which would almost be a guarantee if Obasa should return as Speaker as allegedly directed by their leader, President Bola Tinubu, and still likely so, even if Obasa’s exit is eventually negotiated without having to return him the gavel, before handing over the resignation the ruling establishment reportedly agreed on.
Interestingly, the fate of the two men seemed tied to the apron strings of a member of the president’s household, who reportedly used to have the governor as a beloved “son”, before trailer ran through them, as Yoruba colloquially speak of an irretrievably-broken relational. Now, Obasa is the latest adopted “son” who must succeed Sanwoolu and the rumour is now thick in the air that the “real” owners of Lagos, no longer want ‘Jide as the power-brokers call the governor in their circle, again as governor.
Apart from the falling-out with the powerful member of the president’s household, an enfant terrible of Nigeria’s politics, is said to have created a “big” Atiku Abubakar problem for Sanwoolu. The details I cant give here since most of the claims can’t be independently verified. But basically those who want the governor gone are now putting the blame of Tinubu’s Lagos humiliating loss in the presidential election, on the governor. There is this talk of him not believing his leader could win, hence the alleged lackadaisical approach to the February 25, 2023 poll, in which Tinubu suffered a triple whammy.
One, it was the first presidential election since 2014 that his party; APC, would lose in Lagos, even when he was not on the ballot. Two, it was the first time, any presidential candidate of any political party would win the state, without his support. When Olusegun Obasanjo took it on his way to re-election in 2003, Tinubu’s party, AD, had no presidential candidate of substance and there was an Aremu-oke, Aremu Isale alliance, which a federal perfidy turned to a rout of five of the then-six AD governors in the South West. Even then, Tinubu survived, interestingly enough, by the surreptitious support of Atiku Abubakar, his today’s sworn enemy. Do you say politics na wa?
When Goodluck Jonathan of PDP won the state in 2011, it was still Tinubu’s mushroom party; ACN, that “collaborated” with him.
The biggest disgrace the 2023 poll brought Tinubu is the fact he was on the ballot when the state allegedly “overwhelmingly” voted Peter Obi of Labour Party, though the electoral body ended up reporting a narrow victory for the victor. Nothing could be more humiliating for the “Lagos boy” and now there is a rumour of the governor being there half-heartedly for his godfather and how he must not be allowed to complete his second term, because of some unproven re-election campaign cash that allegedly came from someone to someone, to support someone. I don’t know how to better put it without sounding like the tale-bearers.
A staunch supporter of the governor was explaining the meaning of Eko Akete to me the other day. Of course, he is a proud Lagosian and always quick to reference the fact-free boast that there is no place like Eko. He schooled me that what we call Eko Akete {a preface to its salutation as a city of wisdom or more like recognising it as a Theatre of Dreams like the creaking red half of Manchester}, is actually Eko ti o ko ete {Lagos that rejects scheming or Lagos that resents the wily}. He noted to me the President may not be able to restrain the powerful member of his household who is doing to the governor what a strong wind does to the banana tree, but he is certain the governor would survive. He was confident that there is something akin to what Yoruba call the madarikan {touch not} or {don’t confront} charm, which their forebears in Lagos had tied to institutional leadership that forbids anyone from messing around and trying to mess up the occupant of a throne {whether traditional or political} at all times.
He recalled then-Governor Lateef Jakande’s issue with then-Oba of Lagos, Adeyinka Oyekan. He talked of a curse from the palace. He spoke of then-Govenor Raji Fashola’s re-election ordeal and how it almost ended the political career of those who wanted to abridge his rise, among many other issues that have helped to shape the recent history of the state.
He warned that the powerful person leading the scorched earth campaign against the governor is not learning from history about how to separate the person and the office, asking me to note how the ongoing issue would end. I told him we all would wait on time.
If the president’s men do not want the governor involved in his re-election in 2027 when the Lagos helmsman should still be in office, then something would definitely have to give.
But wait, why would anyone want to take El-Rufai’s claim to the bank?
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