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Fuel, cash scarcity, others to plunge 24.8 million Nigerians

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Collins Nnabuife

About 24.8 million Nigerians in 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), including 18,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) are expected to be in crisis or worse between June and August this year, Cadre Harmonise (CH) has said.

Cadre Harmonise is a tool used by the food security sector partners to calculate the food security and nutrition situation in a given location within some given period and projections of what is to

The CH is also a tool adopted by partners in the Food Security Sector (FSS), usually developed on request by the government as an early warning tool to prevent and manage food and nutrition crises.

In Nigeria, the process is led by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) through the National Programme for Food Security (NPFS), working closely with other Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), with technical and financial support from global, regional, and national partners including FAO, CILSS, WFP, Save the Children, UNICEF, FEWS NET, CRS, Mercy Corps, among others.

The report also said that about 17.7 million people including 14,000 IDPs in 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory in Nigeria are in crisis or worse through May 2023.

While listing Naira Re-design as one of the critical drivers of the crisis, the report said the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) geared towards the redesign of the currency notes and withdrawal of the old notes from circulation created a serious bottleneck to households’ ability to access cash as well as food commodities.

“Insecurity, especially insurgency in the North East states particularly in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States persists; armed banditry and kidnapping for money ransom in some NW states such as Katsina, Sokoto and Kaduna state as well as North Central states of Benue and Niger which have also lingered.

“Prolonged scarcity of petroleum motor spirit (PMS), commonly called petrol, and the associated hike in pump price across the states led to the astronomical rise in transport fares and cost of food products in Nigerian markets.

“Consistent rising price of food commodities and agricultural inputs across Nigerian markets is one of the drivers of food insecurity. The general consumer price index shows an increase from 15.7% in February 2022 to 21.9% in February 2023 (that is a 39.49% point increase) year-on-year.

It said food consumption level has remained inadequate and below the desired threshold across most of the States. It further stated that in some LGAS in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, food consumption is so critical that most LGAS fall under the crisis phase.

“During the current analysis period, most of the households in the analyzed areas adopted crisis to worse level livelihood coping measures. The implication is that most households had irreversibly disposed of their livelihood assets to meet their food and non-food needs. This is most common in the insurgency-affected states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, where the number of affected LGAs stands at 4, 13, and 10 respectively.

“The nutrition situation deduced from the IPC Acute Malnutrition projection for January to April 2023 covering Adama, Borno and Yobe (North East) and Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara (North West) shows the prevalence of crisis to worse nutrition situation across the states.

“Borno State has about 18 LGAS whose nutrition status is classified in phase 3 and the same for 6 LGAS in Yobe. The LGAS of Adamawa State is largely classified under pressure (Phase 2). In the North West States of Katsina and Zamfara, 17 and 10 LGAs respectively are in phase 3; while LGAS in Sokoto State is largely classified under phase 2. In some inaccessible areas of Borno State, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition has reached very critical level (Phase 4 and Phase 5).

“During this current analysis period, there was no evidence to enable the objective analysis of mortality. Thus, across states, mortality outcomes were not analyzed. However, the past trend indicates a steady reduction in under five Crude death rate (CDR) across the states”, the report stated.

Listing the factors driving acute food and nutrition insecurity conditions, the report said “protracted insecurity especially, insurgency in the north-east states, mostly in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states; armed conflict, criminality and banditry in some north-west states (Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara and Kaduna), as well as North-Central states of Benue and Niger.

“High food inflation as evident in soaring food commodity prices (39.49% point increase in February 2023 CP1 y/y), which has limited households’ access to food.

“Loss of employment and reduction in household income due to the long-term effect of COVID-19 pandemic and displacement arising from conflict and armed banditry as evident in the crisis – emergency livelihood coping strategies adopted by most households.

“Prolonged scarcity of petroleum motor spirit (PMS), commonly called petrol, and the associated hike in pump price across the states led to the astronomical rise in transport fares and cost of food products in Nigerian markets.

“Flood incidence which destroyed hundreds of thousands of hectares of cropped field, livestock, stocked fish ponds and stock of foods at both household and market levels, in addition to limiting market flows (supply of stock) and physical access to markets as some market routes were either washed off or submerged for a few weeks.

The March 2023 cycle of the Cadre Harmonise (CH) analysis covered 26 states of Nigeria, namely: Abia, Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross-River, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

The report recommended that the government and humanitarian community should sustain the implementation of life-saving interventions of food assistance and unconditional cash transfers (social welfare package) to vulnerable populations in the affected areas.

It also recommended that government, Civil Society Organizations and Private Actors should sustain efforts in facilitating humanitarian access to the inaccessible/hard-to-reach areas to provide basic assistance to those in critical need.

“Sustain/promote various resilience-building interventions for households through MSMEs, prioritizing the vulnerable populations to enable them to get a fresh start-up for their livelihood, as well as dry-season agricultural production inputs.

“Continually apply the CH analysis results as a tool for response planning, policy formulation and resource allocation to address the challenges of critical food and nutrition insecurity among vulnerable populations and zones. Thus, states should consistently strengthen and expand the composition of the State Analysis Task Force (SATF) to ensure plurality”, the CH recommended.

The Country Representative of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) for Nigeria and ECOWAS, Fred Kafeero said the FAO has continued to support the Government in leading the implementation of CH processes nationally, both in terms of funding as well as technical support, despite resource limitations and competing demands.

He said Nigeria witnessed unprecedented levels of farmland destruction by flood, affecting nearly half a million hectares of formerly productive land.

“This brought negative consequences for food production; early depletion of household and stock; leading to predictable food scarcity this year”, he said.

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