At the height of its powers, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which took over the reins in 1999, boasted of ruling the country for 60 consecutive years. Though its reign was cut short in 2015, the possibility of its return to the saddle remained potent until the 2023 general election. General Editor, TAIWO ADISA periscopes PDP’s supposedly smooth ride which ended in a ditch in 2023.
The 2023 general election proved decisive for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party that showed much promise of its return to power after the 2015 mishap crumbled massively in 2023, losing most of its strongholds to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). To many, the results came against the run of play. Many others have adduced several reasons, with some placing the blame on the hitches recorded by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the build-up to the election. However, it would take some deep looks into the undercurrents within the party before the national convention of 2021, the presidential primaries of May 2022, and the 2023 presidential election to get close to the roots of the colossal fall suffered by the octopus-like party in the last election.
English writer, Williams Shakespeare, gave the drama world lots of plays to continue to shew, many years after his demise. One of the comedies he bequeathed to the theatre world is The Taming of the Shrew. It tells of how the suitor managed to tame the bossy, temperamental, and difficult woman into submission.
Though the relationship between the PDP and the Nigerian populace showcased the party as the husband who assumed the willy, bossy, temperamental, and hard-to-manage character, the populace assumed the traditional role of the African wife, meek, easygoing and calm, accepting whatever the husband throws at her.
The PDP, which took over the reins of power at the start of the nation’s Fourth Republic, through the elections of 1998/1999, behaved as though it had captured the spirit of the Nigerian, ab initio. It was bullish and domineering, leaving little or no space for its rivals, the All Peoples Party (APP) later All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and the Alliance for Democracy (AD). In the elections that ushered in democratic rule in 1999, the PDP had 21 governors, plus two-thirds majority control of the National Assembly and the presidency. The APP had nine governors, while the AD had six states under its control.
By 2003, the coast had enlarged with PDP retaining the presidency, two-thirds of the National Assembly, and 27 governors, though Anambra later changed to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) following a ruling of the court, to reduce the number to 26. The ANPP had eight governors with AD having only one state. PDP’s invincibility continued in 2007 when it retained the presidency and a majority of seats in the National Assembly. The party originally won 32 states before losing Osun and Ekiti to the Action Congress (AC), while winning Ondo which was initially won by the Labour Party (LP) to its fold. In the 2011 election, the PDP won 23 states and retained its hold on the National Assembly, while in 2015, the Nigerian lady appeared to have grown wiser, leaving the PDP with 13 governors, and a little above one-third of the National Assembly. The All Progressives Congress (APC), which upstaged the former ruling party had 22 states, while APGA retained Anambra State. What happened in the 2015 election appeared a classical showcase of the fate that befell the behemoth PDP at the polls in 2019 and 2023.
All through the election seasons, between 1999 and 2011, the PDP was able to maintain a firm hold on the Nigerian electorate, leaving the opposition to pick the crumbs. The trouncing of the party by the APC in 2015, was, however, regarded by many as a temporary setback. Those who nursed that feeling believed that the coalition that formed the APC would be unable to hold on to power as they were expected to be torn apart by the power-sharing formula.
The imminence of PDP’s return to Aso Rock was particularly real, especially following the return of some of the power brokers who left for the APC in 2014 in the build-up to the 2019 election. The party was seen to have done well in that election and even now, some still believe that the PDP won the 2019 presidential election. To that class, the APC allegedly deployed incumbency powers to remain in office.
That mindset coupled with the general socio-economic and political circumstances the APC government had plunged the country into in the eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari had set the stage for the 2023 election. The election pitched former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP against a former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu (APC), former Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi of Labour Party (LP), and another former governor of Kano State, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Just before the party primaries
It can be said that much of the foundation for the outcome of the February 2023 election was laid before the primaries of the PDP and the APC. The PDP was the first to fix a date for its primaries. There were calculations within the two parties as to where the party’s standard bearer should come from. The stage was void as the North versus South calculation trended. In the APC, President Muhammadu Buhari did not give enough clues to his henchmen, leading to the apparent fax paus by the then National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu to surreptitiously announce Senate President, Ahmed Lawan as the consensus presidential candidate.
Within the PDP, two strong camps had emerged. A camp, which favoured the emergence of Atiku Abubakar believed that the party’s ticket should go to the North. There was an argument that the South produced the last president of the party. The camp loyal to then Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, was, however, insisting on the resolution of the Southern Governors’ Forum on power shift and that a Southerner should emerge.
Interplays inside the PDP
Within the PDP, the Governors’ Forum had taken charge long before the primaries. The unity among the governors in the wake of the removal of former National Chairman, Uche Secondus was infectious. Almost all of the governors were facing one direction and they calculated that the old guard would be swept aside in the 2023 election.
Nyesom Wike was becoming the rallying point and Atiku was looking more like the antagonist. With the emergence of Dr. Iyorchia Ayu as Secondus’ replacement, the PDP Governors’ Forum got more energized. Meetings upon meetings kept suggesting the determination of the governors to produce the presidential standard bearer in the 2023 election.
The decision to pick Ayu ahead of Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who was the initial target was said to be borne out of the determination of the governors for a “clean break” from control by the retired military top brass and the old guard. Oyinlola was considered close to former President Olusegun Obasanjo and General Ibrahim Babangida.
Incidentally, the emergence of Ayu had somewhat laid the foundation for what later emerged as G5 governors. After the position of Chairman was zoned to North Central, for the sake of Ayu, Oyinlola threw his hat into the ring for the post of Deputy National Chairman, South. Every effort was made by the governors to get him to back down since Governor Seyi Makinde had endorsed Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja for the slot. After a series of meetings, which saw the acclaimed old guard including Atiku, Senators David Mark, Ike Ekweremadu and other Board of Trustees members supporting Oyinlola, the camp of the governors was distraught that their plot to scheme out the former Osun governor was foiled as he eventually found himself on the ballot despite the machinations by the governors. While expressing his annoyance to some party men, one of the governors was said to have vowed to teach Atiku a lesson for ensuring that Oyinlola’s name was on the ballot at the October 2021 National Convention.
In the build-up to the presidential primaries, the Wike camp was said to have carefully weaved a plot that led Peter Obi to leave the party in anger, after having allegedly seized the structure of Anambra PDP from him, using Ayu. The Wike camp, including Wike himself, the governor of Rivers State, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Samuel Ortom of Benue, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu, and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia was said to have further intensified on the animosity they had nursed from the presidential primaries in May 2022, and then hid under the Southern agenda claim, to launch the G5 and constitute a key offensive that threw Atiku’s camp off balance in the election process.
2022 presidential primaries
At the PDP Presidential primaries on May 28, 2022, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar won with 371 votes to 327 polled by Wike. The victory was said to have emerged via a last-minute withdrawal of the then Sokoto State governor, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal in favour of Atiku.
Though Wike had promised to support whoever emerged as winner of the PDP primaries, sources told the Nigerian Tribune that immediately after Atiku won, Wike and his loyalist governors moved to secure a foothold in the APC, by reaching out to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, believed to be the leading contender in the APC. Thereafter, whatever the discussions with Atiku by the G5 were said to be mere veils covering the main intentions. It was gathered that the camp had already perfected a little to the right and a little to the left arrangement that would undermine Atiku and keep it on the right side of power in 2023.
Politics of G5 governors
Initially, the G5 governors were able to mask their original agitation as one fueled by the push for Southern presidency. Though sources had confirmed that their main intention was to stop Atiku and rid the PDP of the perceived “military control.”
Despite a series of meetings held with Atiku and his emissaries on ways forward, in Nigeria and London, a source said that G5’s moimoin had continued to hit the ground on its flat side. There appeared no leeway in the offing. A source said that the surprise was that Atiku lacked the requisite intelligence report which should have confirmed to him that the G5 had already moved on immediately after the PDP primaries. The group was, however, able to give Atiku impossible conditions- asking Ayu to go.
Incidentally, Atiku’s camp had calculated that Ayu’s departure would create more dangers as the next in line, the Deputy National Chairman, North, Umar Damagun, is from the North East like Atiku. If the G5 again, should demand Damagun’s resignation, because of his place of origin, the lot for the control of the party would then fall on Arapaja, an ally of Seyi Makinde, who is a key member of G5.
Thus, as the election was drawing close, both parties continued to stall. The G5 governors had continued to strengthen their ties with Tinubu while projecting impossible conditions for Atiku. As the drama unfolded, sources quoted Wike as saying that he could never work with Atiku as far as Tambuwal was coordinating the presidential campaign. Though Nigerians expected the G5 to publicly announce their preferred presidential candidate early in 2023, nothing of such happened, it emerged that the deal had been sealed with Tinubu long before the election.
Role of the business community
As soon as Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku emerged as the major contenders in the 2023 race, the business community was said to have kick-started their search for the candidate they would work with. Sources in the polity confirmed that a series of hushtones eventually led to a lunch outing in Lagos, where it was finally agreed that Tinubu was the person to support. It was learnt that the brief lunch event raised more than $10 million to support the candidate they believed was most viable.
Atiku’s failure to pluck low-hanging fruits
A veteran in the presidential contest, the 2023 election was just there for Atiku to take. It was like a gaping goal where the striker was all alone. His defeat easily ranks as the alter ego of Yakubu Aiyegbeni’s famous miss in the 2010 World Cup match between Nigeria and South Korea in a match played at Durban Stadium in South Africa. The APC government of President Muhammadu Buhari had made the contest an easy one for Atiku via its economic policies. There was fuel scarcity dotting the election period. There was an unusual naira scarcity, which placed the lives of many in peril. So many unhelpful economic policies placed the lives of citizens in the balance. Those policies were bad advertisements against the APC and supposedly its candidate in the election.
Perhaps, having seen Atiku’s failure to keep de-marketing the ruling party and its candidate with the bad policies, Tinubu had to turn things around and claim to be the target of Buhari’s policies. At a stage, former Information Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed had to voice out against Tinubu campaign’s tactical distancing from the ruling party’s policies.
To members of Atiku’s camp, the fact that the APC had left the country in disarray was a huge plus. To them, “it was a sign the candidate didn’t need to do much, and how many Nigerians would even touch the APC with a long spoon?”
Whether it was complacency or a lack of strategy, Atiku’s men left too much to be desired in the presidential race. First was his failure to hold on to Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which created an upset winning Kano State, and then his decision to allow Peter Obi to exit the PDP fold was another misnomer, an analyst said.
With the benefit of hindsight, insiders in the party said that Atiku should have dealt with the PDP insurgency more decisively. A source said that Atiku witnessed how Obasanjo disentangled himself from the “Mandela option” conspiracy, kneeling where he could and prostrating where necessary. “In 2002/2003, there were bids including Mandela Option and impeachment bids against Obasanjo. Atiku saw how OBJ went about disentangling himself from the limbo,” a source said.
Another source said that Atiku should have learnt from the G7 agitation against President Goodluck Jonathan. “When the G7 agitation started against Jonathan, it was taken with levity. The former president dismissed the agitation but eventually, five of the governors formed nPDP, and defected to the APC, and that led to the fall of Jonathan’s presidency in 2015.
“When Obasanjo was the leader of the PDP, and he did not want Rotimi Amaechi and Ifeanyi Araraume as governorship candidates in Rivers and Imo States respectively, he withdrew the tickets and damned the consequences. So it is either Atiku deal decisively with the insurgents in his party or agree with whatever condition they gave him,” a source equally said. It was also said that whereas Atiku had his key challengers from the South, he left the axis largely bare without strategists and adequate media interventions. While the Emilokan slogan and holy family claims were sweeping across the South-West and South East, Atiku’s men were possibly negligent of the implications, it was gathered.
Atiku’s arrow haunting PDP?
When Atiku was Vice President, sources said he initiated a plot by which Young Turks would take control of Northern politics. It was learnt that his loss of the North-West in 2023 could be attributed to his arrow coming to haunt the launcher as the Northern Young Turks were said to have queued largely behind the APC. That was said to have informed why APC won 44 per cent of North-West votes to PDP’s 33.9 per cent. The fact that the APC candidate was able to leverage a national outlook ahead of the PDP also did the party in.
For instance, APC polled a 58.4 per cent victory in the South West; where PDP polled 21.6, LP got 19.5 percent and NNPP got 0.38 per cent. In the North Central, the APC scored 41.3 per cent compared to LP’s 33.2 percent, PDP’s 24.1 percent, and NNPP’s 1.4 per cent. In the North West, APC got 41 per cent ahead of the PDP which polled 33.9, and NNPP which got 19.6 per cent. PDP won 55.9 per cent of North East votes but was closely marked by the APC which got 29.9 and LP with 10.1, while NNPP got 4.05 per cent. In the South-South, LP took the initiative from PDP by winning 44.2 per cent, APC scored 29.1 per cent, PDP was pushed to third spot with 26.1 per cent, while NNPP scored 0.63 per cent. The South East was lost massively by the PDP for the first time since 1999, with LP sweeping home 89.6 per cent of the votes. APC scored 5.8 per cent to come second while the PDP, traditional holders of the crown in the zone came third with 4.2 per cent. NNPP polled 0.38 per cent. Despite the spread of its members across Nigeria, the PDP won only one geopolitical zone in the 2023 election. The APC won three; LP’s Obi won two.
PDP, the quandary right now
Two events that unfolded recently within the precincts of the national secretariat of the PDP, Wadata Plaza, Abuja, were quite instructive. The events that took place one week after the other told so much about the state of an abyss and lack of direction in the PDP. One week, some loyalists of Atiku, the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 election, took over the surroundings, calling for the ouster of the Acting National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagun.
The following week, supporters of the acting national chairman responded by staging their protest, declaring that the man was doing well. Recall that Damagun took over the mantle of leadership of the party after the ouster of Dr Iyorchia Ayu, in March, following the protracted battle between Atiku and the G5 group of governors, led by Wike. The drama was a show of how deep the PDP had sunk into a hole in recent times and perhaps a purveyor of how far it might remain buried under the rubble.
Though the Atiku/Damagun spar should have been an Atiku/Wike battle, the fact that Wike is on assignment as FCT Minister at this time means Damagun has to stand in for him. Sources in the PDP said that the leadership crisis is a complex battle. While some forces are said to be pushing for the retention of Damagun till the national convention is feasible, possibly in 2025, others are pushing for a new beginning, whereby the likes of Wike and others would face punishment. That however appears a tall order as things stand. It was said that the acting chairman, the party’s national secretary, the deputy national chairman, South and top members of the National Working Committee (NWC) are loyalists of Wike and the G5 Governors.
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