In this report, JOSEPH INOKOTONG analyses the latest unemployment data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), further urging a quick reversal of the present situation as the country celebrates 64 years of independence.
THE Federal Government is basking in the euphoria of attaining 64 years of nationhood and 25 years of unbroken democracy. Arguably, the government has enough reasons to celebrate, based on what has taken place in the past and its projections for the future.
However, there are some sticky points worth reflecting on as the country continues to celebrate. The economy is in a terrible and bad shape as exemplified by a high inflation rate, unstable foreign exchange rate, skyrocketing prices of goods and services and high unemployment, among other indicators.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last week published the 2023 Annual and Q1 2024 Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) results. These reports provide a comprehensive picture of Nigeria’s labour market performance for the full year 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, offering vital insights into key labour market indicators. It mirrors the prevailing situation in the country’s labour market.
The NBS said the release of the 2023 annual report marks the first of its kind, conducted in line with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) guidelines between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023. The findings, it added, offer detailed state-level data on critical labour market indicators such as unemployment, underemployment, wage employment, informal employment and youth participation in education, employment, or training.
Going by the definition of employment, any person who engages in an activity for pay or profit during the reference period is said to be in employment. By this, those in self-employment as well as those working as employees or for wage are said to be employed. During the reference period, 2023, 85 percent of persons employed were in self-employment while the remaining 15 percent were engaged as employees or wage earners.
Data released by the NBS shows that 4,792,296 Nigerians, representing 5.4 percent of the working-age population were unemployed in 2023. Women accounted for 52 percent of this population with men at 48 percent.
The 2023 Annual and Q1 2024 Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) publication indicates that 116.6 million, representing 53.8 percent of the total population, are in the working age group.
The annual labour force participation rate was 76.3 percent, equivalent to 88.9 million individuals. A breakdown shows that Bauchi State recorded the highest participation rate at 92.3 percent, while Ekiti State had the lowest at 63.4 percent.
The NBS said of the total working-age population in 2023, 84.1 million individuals were employed, including 20.6 million persons between the ages of 15 and 24.
Data provided showed that in employment-to-population ratio in 2023, the national employment-to-population ratio was 72.2 percent, with rural areas representing 77.3 percent, significantly outperforming urban areas at 68.7 percent. Bauchi State had the highest employment-to-population ratio at 88.4 percent, while Rivers State recorded the lowest at 55.7 percent. By sex, the EPR was 73.7 percent for males and 70.7 percent for females.
In 2023, 77.6 million individuals were engaged in informal employment, accounting for 92.2 percent of the employed population. Kano State had the highest number of informal workers, with about 5.2 million individuals engaged in informal employment, followed by Lagos State with 4.6 million people, excluding agriculture.
At the national level, the headline unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in 2023. At the state level, Abia recorded the highest unemployment rate at 18.7 percent, while Nasarawa had the lowest at 0.5 percent.
A thorough analysis of the NBS data showed that unemployment by educational status in educational attainment indicates that the unemployment rate was highest at 9.4 percent among persons with post-secondary education. Those with secondary education followed this at 6.7 percent and those with primary education at 4.1 percent. The rate was lowest for those with no formal qualification at 3.2 percent.
National time-related underemployment stood at 11.1 percent, with 8.3 percent for men and 13.4 percent for women. Plateau State had the highest time-related underemployment at 33.9 percent, while Nasarawa recorded the lowest at 0.3 percent. Youth not in employment, education or training (NEET rate) was 15.6 percent, with Abia State recording the highest NEET rate at 38.1 percent and Zamfara State the lowest at 4.5 percent.
Highlights of the Q1 2024 Labour Force Survey showed that in Q1 2024, the labour force participation rate among the working-age population declined to 77.3 percent in Q1 2024, from 79.5 percent in Q3 2023.
Employment-to-population ratio was 73.2 percent in Q1 2024. This is a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to a ratio of 75.6 percent in Q3 2023. The ratio in urban areas was 69.5 percent and 78.9 percent in rural areas in Q1 2024. This represents a reduction in the ratio compared to the 71.1 percent and 80.7 percent in Q3 2023, respectively.
The proportion of workers in wage employment rose to 16.0 percent in Q1 2024, a 3.3 percentage point increase from 12.7 percent in Q3 2023. By gender, the male population took higher percentage as 20.1 percent of males were in wage employment, compared to 12.1 percent of females. Wage employment was also higher in urban areas, at 21.8 percent than in rural areas, where it stood at 8.1 percent.
The unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in Q1 2024, from 5.0 percent in Q3 2023. By place of residence, the rate was 6.0 percent in urban areas and 4.3 percent in rural areas for Q1 2024. Unemployment based on educational attainment shows that the unemployment rate among persons with post-graduate education was 2.0 percent, 9.0 percent among those with post-secondary education, 6.9 percent for those with secondary education and 4.0 percent among those with primary education in Q1 2024.
Youth unemployment: The unemployment rate among youth aged 15-24 years was 8.4 percent in Q1 2024, a decrease of 0.2 percent compared to 8.6 percent in Q3 2023. Underemployment: Time-related underemployment in Q1 2024 was 10.6 percent, showing a decrease of 1.7 percent from the rate of 12.3 percent recorded in Q3 2023.
The NBS data shows that youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET rate), indicate that the percentage of youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET rate) was 14.4 percent in Q1 2024, showing a 0.7 percentage point increase from 13.7 percent in Q3 2023. The results also showed a higher NEET rate among females at 15.9 percent, compared to 13.0 percent for males in Q3 2023.
Number of hours worked: Nationally, 1.5 percent of employed Nigerians spent between one and nine hours in a week, 4.8 percent spent between 10 and 19 hours in a week, approximately 25 percent worked between 20 and 39 hours, 22 percent between 40 and 48 hours and the 46 percent worked 48 hours and above in a week.
The country needs to reengineer its economy for inclusive growth that reflects positively in all strata of the nation and people, providing employment for those willing to work and making life worth living for the citizenry.
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