On June 16, 2015, just 18 days after he took power as the president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari set the tone for the underwhelming performance he knew he would end up delivering and offered an excuse in advance. It was in South Africa, parleying with the Nigerian community. Hear him, “I wish I became Head of State when I was a governor, just a few years as a young man. Now at 72, there is a limit to what I can do.”
He added a no-brainer on his politics; “I did not want any political office at first, if I wanted, I would have joined the Peoples Democratic Party then and maybe I would have got to where I am much earlier. But then, I wanted to go with the opposition.”
Then, his self-imposed messianic agenda as a unifier; “The second thing that finally convinced me to join partisan politics was what happened in the Soviet Union. You know the Soviet Union was an empire in the 20th century that collapsed without a shot being fired. Everybody went home, there was confusion. Now, there are 18 countries out of the old Soviet Union. “I was afraid Nigeria might be like Somalia. The Somalis are the same people, they are all Muslims, but because the elite are self-centered, selfish, they have succeeded to make Somali a war country for the last 20 years.
“For that reason I said Nigerians are much more vulnerable. We have so many nationalities no matter how you look at it, Hausa-Fulani, Kanuri, Yoruba, Igbo. We are actually people of different cultures, but since 1914, we have merged in spite of religion and culture, married across, produced children and only crazy people can think of balkanising Nigeria.”But we are not short of crazy people. That is the frightening part of it.”
Also, since June 2022, almost a year clear the terminal date, the president, on multiple occasions, has been speaking to his eagerness to leave office. Now, just eight days to the shelf-life of his administration, he is about strolling into the setting sun, sadly, at the expense of Nigeria and Nigerians.
Psychologists say that when a man suddenly stops desiring what he had always wanted, depression has kicked in. President Buhari badly wanted to be president, he angled for it five times, succeeding twice in 2015 and 2019, despite knowing his limitations would be a barrier to sound governance, including preventing the country from fragmenting like Soviet Union or becoming war-torn like Somalia. That is pure selfishness. The wickedness part was seeking reelection in 2019 and winning ugly, despite knowing four years earlier, his body, mind and ideas would not cope with the office demands again in a country where the president is an oracle, worshipped by men and women of better quality, simply because he has the final say on patronage and government is the most lucrative enterprise around.
Well, the president predicted his failure and whatever is thought of the advance warning and excuse, the deed is done and for a man, even wishing to quit the most glam job in the land ahead of time, (which is the real meaning of being eager), we can only commit him to his conscience. Mr President even failed on what his heart desired most for Nigeria. Yes, the different nations within Nigeria may not have the sovereignty of Uzbekistan and co. that broke off Russia, yet the fragile amity that exists among the countries of old Soviet doesn’t even exist among ethnic nationalities in Nigeria. The just-concluded general election showed clearly that everyone is on his own (O.Y.O). So, in a sense, post-USSR is better than the to-thy-tent we have experienced in the last eight years.
Then, the Somalia angle. According to Necrometrics, around 500,000 people are estimated to have been killed in Somalia since the start of the civil war in 1991. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset estimated that 3,300 people were killed during the conflict in 2012, with the number of fatalities dropping slightly in 2013 to 3,150. Then, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia reported about 596 civilian casualties by August 2020.
By 2020, under Buhari, insurgency had claimed almost 350,000, according to United Nations’ figures released in June 2021. Comparatively, Somalia was doing better in stemming the ugliness ravaging it than Nigeria in the hands of the Katsina-born ruler. When Buhari was framing himself as the unifier to save Nigeria from psychos (crazy people he called them) who wanted to crash the union, Somalia was already lifting itself out of the humanity pit that Nigeria now appears to have sunk under the watch of the General who came to save it.
On his personal motivation for coming into politics and seeking political power, the president evidently failed, but since there is no world court to prosecute failed leaders for failed leadership that doesn’t include direct war-crimes, Buhari can only be left to the judgment of history.
But that is some kind of comfort being offered him by tomorrow, considering that since 1999, successive succeeding administration has made the immediate look saintly in conduct and superbly in delivery.
Olusegun Okikiola Aremu Obasanjo’s sight and continued existence may rile many, but documented history shows his administration made Nigeria more institutional than any in recent history, though he had the predilection to make himself look superior to instructional governance when his leadership needed correction. The mess he made of the electoral system should make him a permanent villain, but Buhari showed up with acts that made logic look stupid while trying to keep the toga of a martyr. Buhari is an electoral manipulator. Goodluck Jonathan before him was the democracy martyr and the stars put on his shoulders by his electoral reform and fidelity he showed to it, which though consumed him, mitigated the disastrous supervisory leadership he provided over his appointees. Then Buhari came and supervised no one, including the Petroleum Ministry he awarded himself.
The president himself technically declared his presidency over in February 2017 when he returned from a long medical vacation to tell Nigerians that his doctors advised him to eat and rest well. It sounded like Aso Rock becoming an infirmary.
Eerily, the déjà vu around the change of baton in a few days is gripping. After Buhari, something drastically opposite would have been apposite. Anything looking like it that also has the possibility of producing similar results should be off-consideration. But the reality on the laps of Nigeria today is that the transition taking place is indistinguishable from what has been in the last eight years. In fact, the exuberant optimism of 2015 is missing and the joy of a new leadership is only at the level of partisans who stand to directly benefit. Among Nigerians, pessimism walks on two legs, inter-mingling. I believe genuine bookies would have made that starkly known to the new man who must have sanctioned an estimate of public mood. History also says tomorrow will likely make Buhari’s today appear better.
But the new man can change the narrative of “a better yesterday” which is actually a curse. All he needs to do is being and staying righteous with God and learn how to publicly acknowledge Him, just like they do during campaigns. That is when Nigerians can rejoice. That is when he can fulfil the purpose of making it to Aso Rock and possibly keeping the seat.
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