The die is cast today as the once-unthinkable fight between Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu reaches a climax as the Osun State chapter of the All Progressives Congress, APC holds its governorship primary.
Aregbesola is backing Moshood Adeoti while Tinubu is backing the incumbent governor, Gboyega Oyetola.
Aregbesola who had been accused of projecting Tinubu as next to God in the past, earlier this week came full circle to pour out his frustrations on his one-time mentor and political leader.
The crux of the dispute between the two men is the re-election of Governor Gboyega Oyetola, a man variously described as Tinubu’s brother, nephew, cousin, or better still, his blood relative.
And that is where it becomes embarrassing for the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Tinubu.
He had all the while claimed Lagos as his ancestry. So how, does he come out openly in the unfolding melee in the battle for the political control of the perceived land of his ancestry?
How does he claim to be the offshoot of the popular Lagos matriarch, Mogaji Tinubu and at the same time, son of another woman who lived somewhere in Osun?
The unfolding problem between Aregbesola and Tinubu started a few years ago. Specifically at the time that Aregbesola began his own transition from office after nearly eight years in office.
It has now emerged that Aregbesola did not want Oyetola as his successor having preferred his SSG, Moshood Adeoti. However, he could do nothing about it.
The Oyetola camp believes that Aregbesola’s hesitance nearly cost the party the election in 2018. In fact, it is claimed that Aregbesola nudged Adeoti to the Action Democratic Party, ADP where he contested the 2018 election against Oyetola after he lost in the APC primaries of that year.
Indeed, Oyetola and Tinubu had to make a deal with the ‘political devil,’ that is Senator Iyiola Omisore for Oyetola to win the run-off election that was partly caused by the split votes that arose from Adeoti’s aspiration on the platform of the ADP.
Omisore who had been a ferocious foe of the Tinubu tendency surprisingly came under the shelter of the Tinubu machine and with it acquired official political status in the state.
Given that the then national chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole led the deal with Omisore, it was not surprising that his ‘sins’ were forgiven and the prosecutions in the hands of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC deescalated.
As Chief Femi Fani-Kayode muttered before he swallowed his vomit:
“I am not surprised that my good friends Senator Musiliu Obanikoro and Senator Iyiola Omisore have got their passports back from the EFCC and are now in America.
“I do not blame them for joining the ruling party to avoid persecution. Some are strong whilst others are weak. I would rather die than join APC or bow to Buhari.”
To the shock of Aregbesola, Omisore got a front position in the Oyetola government and has remained a steadying power in the Osun State Government.
Even worse for Aregbesola was the fact that many of his legacies in government, many of them controversial and half-baked have been reversed by the Oyetola government.
While party operatives in Osun State were forced to choose between Oyetola and Aregbesola, outsiders interested in breaking the Tinubu – Aregbesola unity were also quick to move in.
Many in Lagos again began to question why Aregbesola should continue to maintain one of the most formidable political groups in Lagos, that is The Mandate Group, and also uphold similar foothold in Osun State.
Aregbesola brought the increasing dissension between himself and Tinubu to the fore when he celebrated his 63rd birthday with a virtual colloquium in May 2020 that involved Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, a well-known critic of Tinubu.
In his remarks El-Rufai drove home his spite for Tinubu saying:
“I want to congratulate my brother, Ogbeni (Aregbesola), on his birthday. You know I’m your man any day. I’m not Asiwaju’s man and you are Asiwaju’s man, but I am your man any day. Asiwaju and I have differences but you and I have no differences.”
Days after that, the powerful Governance Advisory Council, GAC which controls the politics of Lagos under the de facto leadership of Tinubu dissolved the Aregbesola led Mandate Group along with all other groups.
The move according to the GAC was to remove all sorts of friction within the APC in Lagos.
However, nearly everyone knew that Aregbesola was the target as it denied him of his base in Lagos. Meanwhile, in Osun State, Oyetola was rubbishing all that was remaining of his legacy.
To be fair to Aregbesola, before this week he had not openly come out to chastise Tinubu. However, snippets of criticism against Oyetola were being picked up here and there, now and again.
When Asiwaju was in London recovering from ill-health, Aregbesola was not listed among those who visited. Even more, despite being the engine room of the two elections that brought Tinubu to power in 1999 and 2003, Aregbesola has been very distant from the Tinubu presidential campaign.
Indeed, for months those with ears to the ground have been hearing of postulations of Aregbesola being used to decimate Tinubu by foes within the APC.
Whatever, his innuendo this week of having served (Tinubu) almost like a god and being left in the cold is reflective of his frustration. However, having for much of his political career survived on dialectical postulations, the reality is that except a miracle happens today, it will be a sad ending for Tinubu and Ogbeni Aregbesola.
