Azeez Olaniyan, a professor of political science at the Ekiti State university, speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on why the 2023 election witnessed the lowest rate of voter turnout in the history of Nigeria as well as the implications of the various shades of irregularities that marred the poll, among others.
The 2023 general election has been found to have a 27 per cent of voter turnout, the lowest in Nigeria’s history. Many observers have been quick to attribute this to incidents of intimidation and vote suppression that occurred during the polls in some parts of the country. What is your take on this?
Well, I see no correlation or meeting point between low turnout of voters and voters’ intimidation or [vote] suppression, because it is not that people are coming out and they are being chased back home. People simply just refused to come out and exercise their franchise on election day. And this is a function of so many factors. Let me also add that the incidents of voter suppression are not widespread. I think we recorded only a few examples in some states. We heard of it in Lagos during the governorship election. And we also saw in viral videos how people were also intimidated in the South-East too. In each of the incidents, we saw how people were mobbed, ridiculed, and forcefully ordered to vote for candidates of certain political parties. But as I have said, it didn’t happen generally across the country; we only saw it in a few states, so we can’t logically say that it contributed to the worst voter turnout we recorded during the 2023 elections. The turnout is a function of so many factors, one of which is the economic situation of the country as of then and now. Another big factor is the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy, which actually put many people in a very tough economic debacle. And I want to believe this is part of the reasons the people decided not to come out and vote. Meanwhile, if you look at the turnout of voters in Nigerian elections, you will observe that it has been having a kind of gradual decline since 1999. It has been happening during both the presidential and state elections that we have had. But, for me, I don’t think this year’s impression is occasioned chiefly by vote suppression or intimidation of voters.
What then are the factors that caused it?
I just mentioned the monetary policy of the CBN, which created a lot of pain for people especially as the country’s economy was already battling serious challenges. So I can say people’s anger at the stagnated economy may be a part of the reasons they refused to come out to vote. Don’t forget that during that period, many people could not travel to their various homes and villages where they had registered for the election because of the cash crunch. Also, the existential problems of the country like the high level of poverty and insecurity can as well be strong factors that discouraged people from coming out on election day. There is also this general loss of confidence in the Nigerian political system and governance, which has made many people believe that their votes can never count as the process is drenched with systemic corruption. So, this is another key factor why many people don’t bother to vote in Nigeria.
Meanwhile, I deeply believe that the voters’ register itself is suspect. I want to believe that the names we have on it are not the true reflections of what we have in the country. I believe the figures are simply being inflated. And I think we need also to question the number given as the total Nigerian population, because it may not be as high as we have been made to believe. If you look at it critically, you will discover that we haven’t had a very credible census. In view of this, I believe the voters’ register is not a true reflection of the exact number of registered voters in this country. I feel it is padded.
But why do you say so?
See, if you look at the turnout, it is extremely low. Take, for instance, how will you say we have 6.7 million registered voters in Lagos, and at the end of the day, we were seeing about two million people or so coming out to vote? I don’t even think it is up to this, because if you add the total votes scored by the three leading candidates in the election, you will see that it is just some votes above a million. So how do you explain this? I am not being categorical about this issue, but I am trying to suspect bogus figures that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) gives in the voters’ register. And then again, I believe inadequate voter education is also one of the reasons behind the low turnout. It could be that the political parties and INEC did not sensitise and mobilise people enough during the build-up to the election. All these put together must have possibly orchestrated the extremely poor turnout.
Still on the 2023 elections, the European Union observers, representatives of the United States government, and several other foreign emissaries have scored INEC very low for the conduct of the poll, premising their verdicts on the severe irregularities, such as violence, killings, ballot-box snatching and voters’ intimidation. Where do you think this leaves the Nigerian image on the global map?
Well, there is no perfect election anywhere in the world. Up till now, former American president, Donald Trump, and his group are still questioning the last election held in the United States. Don’t also forget that there was also violence during the election as thousands of people invaded the capitol. This is just to show you that there is no perfect election anywhere. But this is not to excuse INEC as there are challenges here and there, just as the election observers have observed. I simply believe that it is now left for INEC to find ways to improve on what they offered during the 2023 elections, which I think has some improvements too when compared to the past elections in the country. I know that some of the uproars and various claims may have overshadowed the positives of the 2023 elections. But I will still not want us to be pessimistic about the whole exercise. Personally, I believe we may not be able to totally eradicate violence during our elections because it emanates from the nature of Nigerian politics, which is always about ‘winner takes all’ and the stake too is always very high.
Moreover, you cannot blame INEC for the violence recorded during the election, because it is not their duty to prevent or manage violence during the electoral exercise. That is the work of the security agencies. INEC’s role is simply to conduct elections by making voting materials available. But it is the duty of the security operatives to address the issue of election security. So if there is violence, it should be blamed on the security agents that were not proactive enough during the last election. However, I think there are also rooms for INEC to improve in terms of prompt arrival of election materials, proper training of their ad hoc staff, and improvement in technological delivery, among others. These are the areas I think INEC has to take care of ahead of subsequent elections in the country.
You just harped on the security agencies and their roles during the election. But how will you rate their performance during the last election, especially in states where there were killings, ballot-box snatching, kidnapping of INEC staff and voter intimidation?
You see, I believe in states and areas where we recorded various shades of insecurity during the last election as you have mentioned, it is simply the security operatives in these areas that did not live up to expectation by being proactive enough to wade off threats from the political thugs that disrupted the elections. So we have to blame the security officers in these states. We also have to blame the politicians and political parties too, because they are the ones that sponsor the thugs and provide dangerous weapons for them to the detriment of the masses and their safety.
But as much as I believe these persons should share parts of the blame for the various violent acts that plagued the last elections, I think the chief blame should go to the security agencies because they did not leave up to the expectations of millions of Nigerians. Their chief responsibility on every election day is to prevent violence and protect the electorate and the election officers on duty. But what we saw in some states is worrisome, such that it was in the presence of security operatives that the thugs snatched ballot boxes and harmed innocent Nigerians. All the cases of voter intimidation and suppression also reportedly took place at the instance of the security operatives. We saw all these in the various videos that trended on election day. It happened in Lagos and even in the South-East. We saw how people were oppressed, harassed, and booted out of polling units, all because they chose not to vote for the candidates the thugs were working for.
I believe all the masterminds of these acts should have been called for questioning by the security agencies. But I don’t think they have done that, which is not good enough as it will embolden the non-state actors behind the acts to make further destructive attempts since there won’t still be an invitation or punishment. I think democracy should be a matter of choice and anybody must not be coerced into making certain electoral decisions against his or her wish. But when this happens, those behind it must be questioned and prosecuted, not cuddled or shielded from prosecution by the security agencies.
So, going forward, how do you think INEC can redeem its image, especially to restore the loss of confidence that some Nigerians must have in it as a result of what transpired at the 2023 polls?
Well, the voters’ register should be refined and the electoral process should also be strengthened more for us to have better elections. And then, the commission should continue to get itself reformed, especially in the area of electoral technology, staffing, protection of Nigerian votes and adequate voter education.
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