A population census can be defined as the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analyzing, publishing and disseminating all demographic, economic and social data at the smallest and appropriate geographical level pertaining at specific time or times to all the inhabitants of a country, or in a well-defined part of a country. The conduct of population census in Nigeria hitherto has had an irregular pattern. The first census was conducted in 1871 with follow-ups in 1886 and 1896 around Lagos Island metropolis and Lagos mainland. We also had censuses in 1901, 1911, 1921, and 1953. However, post- independence censuses were conducted in 1962/1963, the 1973 census was fraught with irregularities, hence the results were unacceptable. We also had censuses in 1991 and 2006. Periodicity is important in census conduction. The country’s inability to conduct a population census in the last 17 years has created an information gap, as the data from 2006 census has been rendered less useful for planning purposes.
A population and housing census has several imperatives and must therefore be conducted in a credible and acceptable manner. Proven, tested, and precise modern technologies must be deployed for its successful conduct. The planned census is the first fully digital one in Nigeria, which means revised and improved methodology with a better technology must be deployed for it to be successful. To this end, the National Population Commission (NPC), the agency saddled with the mandate of conducting a credible and acceptable census, is adopting a Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) data collection technology. All questionnaires, forms, profomas, satellite imageries, digital orthophotos, enumeration areas, supervisory areas etc, will be georeferenced, geocached and geofenced in the CAPI and personal Data Assistant (PDA) instruments. These will be customised with embedded Global Positioning System (GPS) for locational and navigational intelligent data gathering purposes during personal interviews.
For such a high-end technology to be deployed, driven by appropriate software packages and launched on appropriate platforms, there must be improved logistics with well-coordinated training and retraining of manpower resources. We must therefore have positive actions, steps and plans to succeed since Nigeria has one of the fastest growing populations (about 3.2 percent) in the world with an estimated population of over 200 million people. This is about one third of the population of the whole African continent! Furthermore, Nigeria is the seventh most populous country in the whole world, and will likely be the third most populous country after China and India by 2050, according to the current growth rate. The credibility of such a great enterprise, its accuracy, acceptability, and enumeration period devoid of disturbances must therefore not be compromised at all levels. The NPC must conduct result-oriented seminars for all census functionaries by super trainers and middle level trainers. Population census is a critical factor in a nation’s efforts to achieve sustainable development goals.
It also contributes to social investment programmes such as the poverty alleviation programmes of the Federal Government. Knowledge of the national population census will also enable us to as certain where development in infrastructures (e.g. health, water, education, electricity, etc) can be channeled in order to yield the desired result for the citizenry. Public education about the census, enlightenment in rural areas and the use of traditional town criers must be canvassed and effectively deployed before and during the census period. The support of traditional rulers, academics, and the roles of civic orientation agencies such as the National Orientation Agency (NOA) and NGOs for the propagation and dissemination of census information must be aggressively sought. Adequate and proper funding of the NPC for the census to boost their statutory and operational performance, improved security, and prevention of real or perceived saboteurs must be provided. There must be no census violence anywhere in Nigeria. The recent success being recorded by the armed forces in the battle against insurgency and the successful conduct of the latest elections indicate that the security situation for the census can be adequately handled.
Census data uploading to the central NPC server must be adequately monitored, encrypted and secured to prevent scammers, internet fraudsters, and manipulation of figures. For example, the goefencing subroutine embedded in CAPI/PDA instrument can be used to checkmate census figures falsification with data contiguity in conterminous EA boundaries. This will ensure improved data quality, accurate timing and leverage for strategizing. The NPC and the government must strengthen collaboration with key census stakeholders, build alliances with them, and engender trust for the overall success of the census. With all of these measures put in place, and with strong will, the NPC will attract remarkable support locally and internationally . Development partners, conceptual and technical support, material support and funding for the exercise must be adequately mobilised. The NPC must also partner with relevant agencies.
- Aluko, a retired deputy principal, writes in from Ikere-Ekiti, Ekiti State.
