Kaduna gov election: Why Senator Uba Sani will win

By adminMar 14, 2023, 03:46 am0

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By Danjuma Musa

THE results of the 25th March 2023, presidential elections in Kaduna State has, without doubt, given the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members a false sense of hope that they can win the 18th March 2023 governorship election. In their euphoria that they delivered Kaduna State to their candidate Atiku Abubakar, who ran on a very deadly and divisive “power must remain in the North campaign,” they seem to have forgotten that elections, especially governorship races are local and that Senator Uba Sani, the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate, a bona fide Kaduna State indigene can’t, by any stretch of imagination, be referred to as a stranger, like they derogatorily referred to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who eventually won the election. While the PDP launched an aggressive “power-must-remain-in-the-North” campaign targeted at defeating Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate, in most part of the North, and especially in Kaduna State, definitely can’t use the same notorious “na ka, na ka” campaign against Uba Sani, hence the resort to and the weaponization of religion. The northern governors, especially Nasir El-Rufai, who has obviously paid the most price for his principled convictions that power must shift to the South and against the black currency redesign policy, deserve applause for saving the North from any future charge of betraying the South-West political zone. Before 2015, both zones never related politically, reason why the 2023 elections was a huge test for the alliance.

In analysing the Kaduna State governorship election, we can’t ignore the similarities between the 2019 elections results of Bauchi State and the 2023 elections results of Kaduna State, which provides a convincing argument for the victory of Senator Uba Sani, the APC governorship candidate. In the 2019 elections in Bauchi State, President Muhammadu Buhari, roundly defeated Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the PDP by 798,428 votes to 209,313 votes. As expected, some armchair political analysts had written off Bala Mohammed, the then governorship candidate of the PDP, who eventually went on to defeat the incumbent Abubakar Mohammed. While the good people of Bauchi State clearly showed their preference for Buhari to be their president, they trusted Bala Mohammed as a safer hand to pilot their state to Abubakar Mohammed, who they consequently sent home on an early retirement.

Like Bala won, so will Uba decisively win, because, like they say, elections are local. And this is why despite Atiku Abubakar carrying Kaduna state, in the 2023 presidential elections, with 554,360 votes to Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 399,293 votes, and 294,494 votes of Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party, the PDP is jittery.

It’s the fact that Uba Sani will win that has pushed the desperate PDP and some Christian leaders into mounting a vigorous campaign of calumny against Jonathan Asake, the Labour Party candidate, to step down for Isa Ashiru Kudan, the PDP candidate. Edward Auta, the spokesman of Isa Ashiru Kudan, wants Jonathan Asake held solely responsible if the “evil APC is not defeated”.

The general consensus is that Uba Sani would win because he has a proven track record of achievements in every assignment that he has handled, either as Special Assistant Public Affairs to Olusegun Obasanjo or as the senator representing Kaduna Central District. He is also well-liked across party lines, due to his generosity and humanitarian activities through his Uba Sani Foundation. Qualities that are lacking in Isa Ashiru the serial PDP governorship candidate, forcing the likes of Professor Matho Dogara, a former deputy Speaker of the state House of Assembly and a staunch PDP member, to openly reject him in favour of Uba Sani. They overwhelmingly agree that Uba Sani is more competent than their candidate.

Without doubt, Uba Sani’s achievements under four years as senator are breathtaking. His predecessors put together didn’t achieve one third of what he has accomplished, especially the N4 billion engineering complex at the state university. Also, Uba will most likely benefit from the divisive religious campaign being waged by the PDP and some Christians that the APC should be rejected because of its Muslim/Muslim ticket. For the average Muslim the campaign against the Muslim/Muslim ticket has crossed the proverbial red line. The PDP to win over the South, its traditional support base, has been forced to campaign on its balanced ticket and the APC Muslim/Muslim ticket. Though the South has embraced the Labour Party, it is equally opposed to the Muslim/Muslim ticket.

The reduction of the campaign to the defeat of the Muslim/Muslim ticket, rather than on policy, has predictably angered many Muslims, including members of the PDP and those who have grouses with the Nasir El-Rufai administration, that were initially going to vote against APC, to change their position, as they see the defeat of the Muslim/Muslim ticket, as the defeat of their Islamic faith, and not the defeat of the APC.

Audio and text messages urging Christians to ditch Jonathan Asake, the Labour Party candidate and vote for the PDP candidate, and the the attack on the campaign train of the Labour candidate, has contrary to the expectations of the PDP and the religious leaders continued to work in favour of the APC.

The religious dimension that the governorship elections has unfortunately taken, was predictable. It was a seed planted and watered by the presidential election. The vote for Atiku and Obi was driven largely by ethnicity and religion, while Tinubu lost the votes of most Christians and some Muslims due to the campaign by the likes of Prof. Ango Abdulahai for power to remain in the North and to the APC Muslim/Muslim ticket. The adoption of Peter Obi,who hitherto had the support of many young people from diverse backgrounds by some church leaders, sadly reduced him to a Christian candidate.

Going into the 2019 general election, the people of kaduna State need to put the future of the state ahead of other considerations. The 18th March,2023 election is of historic consequences. While the people have the right to vote for a candidate of their choice, even when he hasn’t displayed competency in previous assignments, they must be ready to live with the consequences of their actions, like the people of Zamfara State have had to live with below the standard performance of their governors.

Thankfully, they have seen the difference between 2014 and 2019 (the Nasir El-Rufai years) when they made enlightened choices- between Reforms and the “routine governance “and between development and stagnation. Isa Ashiru, who was defeated in the 2014 APC governorship primary by Nasir El -Rufai, desperately wants to be governor of Kaduna State, which is not a crime, the problem is that it is for the fun of it,as he hasn’t demonstrated the capacity to govern a complex state like Kaduna.

Isa Ashiru Kudan, has no track record of performance, even though he had been at the state House of Assembly and at the National Assembly for two terms, where he was the vice chairman of the Appropriations Committee. Isa Ashiru Kudan, is being backed by the ‘traditional rent-seeking politicians,’ who are used to contracting and appointments as the sole purpose of supporting or being in government. The root of the crisis between them and El-Rufai is that they are so basic, that they can’t make sense of the several reforms embarked by El-Rufai, which attracted investments running into billions of dollars and has earned Kaduna State, the title of the most reformed State.

There is so much more to be done, reason why Uba Sani deserves the vote of Kaduna State people to enable him deepen the reforms and take the state to the next level. Kaduna State, despite its huge potentials was lagging behind states like Katsina in infrastructural development and investment in education until the coming of Nasir El-Rufai.

The APC hopes to win the election at the ballot box, but if that fails it will definitely challenge the result based on the academic qualifications presented by Isa Ashiru Kudan to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The issue which is currently before a Kaduna State High Court,in a case between Isa Ashiru Kudan and Professor Mohammed Bello,a former member of the PDP,will be tabled before the Governorship Elections Tribunal for adjudication.

Many see the Bayelsa State scenario, which saw David Lyon being sacked by the Supreme Court on the grounds that his deputy Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, presented false academic statements to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in governorship election in the state, repeated in Kaduna State.

Heads or tail, the APC seems to be in a pole position to win.