The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is set to conduct its gubernatorial primaries in Edo State in a matter of weeks, General Editor, Taiwo Adisa examines the intrigues and the dilemma that appears to be ruling the build-up to the all-important exercise.
In a matter of weeks, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP and other political parties will attempt to fix internal cords as they pick a candidate for the 2024 governorship election in Edo State.
Just as it has always been in the state, powerful political stakeholders are ranged against themselves in a battle that promises all the intrigues and gerrymandering ahead of the emergence of the governorship candidate of the party which will contest for the Dennis Osadebey Avenue, Government House in Benin City.
Godwin Obaseki, the man who started as a governor of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is completing his tenure as a PDP governor courtesy of his defection when it became so hot between him and his erstwhile godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, now Senator representing Edo North. He is tempted to become the latest godfather after things emerged that he is prompting a businessman, who recently joined the PDP, Mr. Asue Ighodalo in the race for the Government House.
Of course, he has other pillars of the party ranged against him and his alleged candidate. Chief Dan Osi Orbih, the National Vice Chairman of the PDP, South-South, the man who championed Obaseki’s course in the party when it became bleak for him in the APC, remains in firm control of the traditional PDP members in the state. His caucus appears to have grown beyond the PDP recently when he announced the formation of the Legacy Coalition, an amalgamation of political forces in the state. Though Orbih’s camp has yet to announce an anointed candidate for the February primaries, the fact that all the other aspirants within the party see him as the rallying point is a big challenge for Obaseki’s calculations.
The incumbent deputy governor, Phillip Shaibu is also a pillar in his own right. Having survived the impeachment plot against him by his boss, Shaibu has continued to push ahead with his plans to contest the primaries of the PDP. He said in a television interview recently that he remains the man to beat in the polls.
While the forces within the party are ranging for the battle ahead, a huge dilemma is said to have crept into the works as the party at the state level and the national level in Abuja was said to have been left in a quandary as to the way forward. Sources close to the party said that the zoning formula is the big battle at hand for the PDP in Edo State. It was learnt that Governor Obaseki has been preaching the gospel of fairness, equity, and justice to push the case for the adoption of a zoning formula that would favour Edo Central senatorial district. The man believed to have joined the PDP on his alleged prompting, Asue Ighodalo is from Edo Central. Obaseki argued that since Edo South has had the governorship seat with him for eight years, while Edo North has also had the same slot for eight years when Oshiomhole led the state, it would only be fair for Edo Central to take the slot after him.
That would look fair at face value. But it was gathered that some deeper calculations in the state’s political firmament are pressing to shove the governor’s argument aside. One of the reasons is the electoral demography of the state. It was gathered that the registered voters in Edo South are more than those of Edo North and Central put together. For instance, Edo Central has 20 per cent of the voters’ population in the state, while Edo North has about 28 per cent of the voters, and Edo South alone has 52 per cent of the voters. “It would be suicidal for a party to zone its ticket to an area with 20 per cent of the votes, where there are candidates from the area that produces 52 per cent,” said a leader of the state, who preferred not to be named.
Another leader of the PDP in the state told the Nigerian Tribune that the late Chief Tony Anenih, who emerged as one of Nigeria’s political wizards of the Fourth Republic refused to toy with the political demography when he was at the helm, preferring to support Chief Lucky Igbinedion from Edo South for the governorship seat in 1999, rather than insist on a candidate from his native Esan in Edo Central.
Besides the question of demographics is the issue Obaseki has championed, which is the preachment on fairness, equity, and justice. It was gathered that some leaders of the party in the state have insisted that the question of justice, equity, and fairness cannot just relate to the quest for zoning. They declared that fairness should date back to 2020, when the party prevailed on a former member of the House of Representatives, Honourable Ogbeide Ihama to step down for Obaseki who had lost out in the APC.
“If Honourable Ogbeide Ihama could listen to the voices of the party in 2020 and drop his ticket for Obaseki, the avenue to start the prayer for justice, equity, and fairness is the Ihama Avenue,” said another leader of the PDP. It was gathered that the leaders are insisting that the coast should be clear for Ihama now that Obaseki is completing his tenure, particularly because he represents Edo South, which holds the bulk of the votes. It was also gathered that Governor Obaseki and leaders of the different tendencies in the Edo PDP have embarked on what a source called shuttle diplomacy in the last week to win over leaders of the PDP at the national level on this principal issue of zoning. Sources in the party said that the PDP Governors Forum (PDPGF) has also been asked to wade in with the National Working Committee already said to be polarized on the matter. A meeting of the NWC of the party was supposed to take place on Wednesday last week, but it was aborted because the battle over Edo was still very hot.
Some leaders of the party in the state were said to have declared that they would not support Obaseki to zone the guber seat to Edo Central because the other major parties are looking towards Edo South. It was learnt that Oshiomhole, the de facto leader of the APC has already anointed a candidate from Edo South, while the Labour Party is also looking towards the direction of Edo South.
Another source said of the development: “If Ihama could win Oredo Federal Constituency back to back in 2015 when APC was in control and 2019 when Obaseki was governor, it shows he is connected to the grassroots because the constituency has never reelected any Rep member since the start of the Fourth Republic. Besides, the leaders are saying, since we begged the young man to step down in 2020, this should be the time we honoured our word and support him as a candidate.”
A source privy to strong debates among members of the NWC said that members have started accusing the party of being notorious for failing to reward loyalty and that implosion, which has been the Achilles heels of the party took root in its failure honour its loyal members. He gave the example of how the party ditched its former Senate Leader, Senator Victor Ndoma-Egba after he had led the National Assembly to pass a Doctrine of Necessity that resolved the 2009 power logjam when President Umar Yar’Adua fell sick. Ndoma-Egba subsequently left the party and laid the foundation for its demise in Cross Rivers. The same was also said of Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, who held the party together as Senate Minority Leader in the 9th Senate. Instead of supporting him for the governorship seat in Abia, the PDP supported Governor Okezie Ikpeazu and ended up losing the Senate seat to Abaribe, who left for All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), while the Labour Party also claimed the governorship seat.
One of the party leaders said that though the PDPGF and the National Working Committee are sharply divided on the matter right now, sanity should prevail in a short while. According to insiders in the party, contenders in the Edo race have flagged off serious lobbying among members of the PDPGF and the NWC, leading to the sharp division.
A leader of the party, however, said that the PDP cannot afford to lose another election, especially that of Edo State where it has a head start with an incumbent governor, adding that the stakeholders would be prevailed upon to do the right thing. The threat posed by the APC to the PDP in Edo State is real and the threat of a one-party state is already ringing bells of caution in the ears of political leaders across the spectrum. That should ensure that things are looked at dispassionately and we should get it right,” a leader of the PDP said in Abuja.
